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Compared with last year's hot scenes of truck sales, this year's sales in the heavy-duty truck market have declined significantly. As for the difference between statements and actual sales, some people think that it is inventory, some people think it is a false report, there are dealers that because of concerns about price increases, many dealers buy in advance The models to be sold in the future. In view of the confusing trend of heavy trucks in the second half of the year, major manufacturers issued different views. The following are the analysis of the current market by the CEOs of Dongfeng, CNHTC, Hualing, Futian and Beiben.
Huang Gang, General Manager of Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles:
It is doing a better job in preparation for the Dongfeng preparations for the cold market that has emerged this year, whether it is preparation for production or sales preparation. So this year, we are keeping an eye on the sales of the terminal. Once there is a change in terminal sales, our production will be adjusted immediately.
In addition, Dongfeng's product system is relatively complete, regardless of tractors, dump trucks, regardless of heavy or lightweight vehicles, Dongfeng are more complete. This also helps us to better respond to this year's market. The overall tractor market was down 20% from last year, but Dongfeng commercial vehicles still grew in the field of tractors. Dongfeng Company stated in its external report that its market share this year is not lower than last year, and the requirement for internal sales targets is not lower than last year. In the first quarter of this year, we did this, and the market share and sales volume exceeded. same time last year. Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles will continue to maintain steady growth in April and May, with no major downturn.
Cai Dong, President of China National Heavy Duty Truck:
The country’s policies are not well-understood, and the ups and downs of the policies have caused the ups and downs of the market. Although the entire heavy-duty truck market is relatively cool this year, it is not too bad. My judgment is 800,000 vehicles. This includes digesting last year’s inventory of 100,000 vehicles.
The entire heavy truck market will be tepid this year. It will not be as good as last year and it will not be bad. My judgment is 800,000 vehicles. This includes digesting last year's inventory of 100,000 vehicles and this year's market has dropped by 100,000 vehicles. The state’s policies are too difficult to grasp, and the ups and downs of the policies have caused the ups and downs of the market.
The reason for the large inventory at the end of last year is that many companies prepare goods in advance. Since many refitted cars have their resources in the hands of heavy-duty trucks, some companies will have to refit them for a month or two. The cycle is too long to avoid losing some of their orders in the big month (referring to the better sales month) as they did last year. Many companies started stocking this year's market from November and December of last year. Another point is that many companies are more optimistic about the market this year. This is also the reason why there are many stock cars at the end of last year.
There are certainly some heavy vehicles in China, such as dealers and refitting factories. But these are the needs of normal sales. Dealing with inventory will indeed reduce prices, but at the time the manufacturing cost of these vehicles was relatively low, and now rubber and other price increases are very severe. Therefore, low costs and price cuts will offset the two, and companies will not lose a lot.
Valin Automobile Chairman and General Manager Liu Hanru:
Last year, the heavy truck market had at least 150,000 inventories. It said that it sold 1 million vehicles last year, which is actually 850,000, and 150,000 inventory was brought to this year. From January to February this year, the market added another 100,000 inventories, and now there are almost 250,000 in stock.
Many companies report moisture to the China Automobile Association. However, the statements of listed companies can be understood. Wait until the first quarter of the report of some listed companies come out, you can see how much inventory and profits they have. In fact, many companies' first-quarter reports will be very ugly, and profits will certainly drop sharply.
Inventory is not what you want to digest can be digested, so much inventory in the first quarter, why companies have to reproduce? Because many inventory models are not what users want. In 2009, the heavy trucks sold a total of more than 600,000 vehicles. Last year, minus 800,000 vehicles were deducted. The figure of 800,000 vehicles is a normal increase.
In the second half of the year, heavy trucks will definitely have to cut their prices, and the price war is inevitable. Now that iron ore prices are increasing, why does Baosteel have to cut prices? There is too much steel stock. In the second half of the year, the heavy truck industry must absorb as much inventory as it needs to reduce prices, and in the end it is the production companies. Terminal sales price reduction of 15%, which dealers still earn 5%, conduction to the manufacturer there, how much a car to lose? How many tens of thousands!
Wang Shihong, general manager of Beiben Heavy Vehicle:
Beiben performed well in the first quarter of this year for three reasons. One is that the sales of Beiben are not that many. It sells more than a few hundred vehicles in a month, which has little impact on the entire industry. Second, Beiben has an advantage in the heavy-duty market in the market segment of tractors. This market has fallen less than last year. Third, Beiben exports to the external Mongolian market this year are very good.
Beiben now has more than 8,000 vehicles in stock, equivalent to almost two months of sales. In the second quarter of this year, the market was definitely not good. Because the market was very fragmented, users did not see a single purchase of bulk purchases as they did last year. It can be said that there is no hot spot in the market this year.
Recently, the price of oil has risen so much, but the price of coal has not risen. Now that the price of oil is so high and the freight rate is low, there are fewer people willing to buy a car. If coal prices rise, even if it rises a few cents, it will have a very big impact on all walks of life and the overall economy. Now that inflation is so severe, it is difficult for the country to increase the price of coal. The price of coal and electricity does not increase, the entire industry chain of coal and electricity will be affected, the price of coal and electricity will be low, and the tariff cannot be high. Moreover, the price of coal and electricity is too low, many coal mines are unwilling to produce, and some mines that are not opened are unwilling Open, open mine production is also insufficient, which has a great influence on the dump truck. Now that the price of oil is to be in line with international standards, it has now risen so many rounds. Such a high price of oil has had a large impact on the entire economy, including the logistics industry. The country should not let the price of oil rise this way.
In addition, a series of policies this year also have a great influence on the heavy truck market. One is the fuel consumption limit, and the fuel consumption management of the operating vehicles must be controlled by the Ministry of Transport and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology must also be in charge. There is also a strict order for Premier Wen Jiabao's signature. The previous overload was only an economic penalty and it has now risen to the height of the law. This effect is great. Nowadays, many vehicles can only make money if they are overloaded. If they are overloaded, they can only lose money. If they are not allowed to overload, then they will be unprofitable. Many people will not be willing to engage in transportation and will not buy new cars. Some people say that they can sell their old overloaded cars and buy new ones. The question is, who is buying these old cars now? They really wanted to sell old cars, but no one bought them, but they could only use old cars to pull goods.
Beiqi Futian, deputy general manager and head of Auman’s headquarters Wu Yuejun:
The reason why the sales volume of heavy trucks in the first quarter of 2011 increased year-on-year last year was that some orders were put into this year's end of last year. In actual terms, it may not have been high sales last year. I believe that the decline in the heavy truck market in the second quarter of this year will be very severe. The tractor sales in the first quarter were very poor and the construction vehicles sold well. In the second quarter, engineering vehicles will also decline, and it will be a more severe decline.
Now that there are more than 200,000 inventories on the market is not an exaggeration, many companies have more than two months of sales of inventory vehicles. However, although the market is not good this year, it will still grow in the long run. Auman's construction of the second factory is not just for this year. In the long run, it will serve to increase production capacity.
The factors such as large stocks, policy restrictions, and rising costs have contributed to the decline in truck sales in the second quarter of this year. In response to the market's contraction, the major manufacturers have taken measures to deal with them. Only by looking at the final sales volume at the end of the year can we know.
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