Construction machinery industry: facing the true test in the third quarter

The first batch of China Daily will meet with investors on the 14th. According to the disclosure of the notice, there is less concern. The reporter believes that although growth is still the main theme of the performance of listed companies in the middle of this year, the main theme has begun to change slightly. In the second quarter, the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) continued to decline, industrial production slowed down, and the deceleration in the growth rate of listed companies' performance was an established fact.

This year, under the pressure of inflation, the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio six times and raised interest rates three times. In this context, manufacturing companies are facing double operating pressures, namely rising costs and tight funding. In fact, the data released recently shows that in June the PMI has dropped for the third consecutive month and dropped to a new low since 28 months. This shows that the growth rate of domestic industrial production is gradually slowing down. The increase in finished goods inventories and rising costs have been cited as the main reason for the slowdown in the growth of industrial production.

Against the backdrop of rising prices, the market generally believes that listed companies face many unfavorable factors in the first half of the year. For example, the economic regulation and control, the reduction of new projects; monetary tightening, interest rates rise, the company's financial costs increased; raw material prices and labor costs increased; power and other energy shortages; Europe and the United States economic recovery is weak, exports sluggish and so on. It is expected that the performance of listed companies will be affected.

However, from the disclosure of performance forecast, the situation is not as bad as expected. Among the more than 800 listed companies that forecast interim results, more than 80% of the pre-jobs in the interim results, and less than 20% of the forecasted performance declined. Of particular note is that more than 96% of small and medium-sized companies listed on the board reported advances, only 17% of these companies expect the decline in interim results. There has been no scenario in which SMEs are collectively in trouble because of credit crunch and rising interest rates.

The reason for this is that, first of all, the domestic economic growth rate remains at a relatively high level. Second, despite the tightening of monetary policy since the end of last year, it has only shifted from loosening to soundness. Finally, inflation has a two-sided nature, which not only drives up production costs but also drives up product prices. At a moderate level, inflation can, to a certain extent, stimulate the positive growth of the economy.

Under the background of inflation, the performance of listed companies has become significantly different. In general, the financial industry will benefit from rising interest rates and increased real interest margins. Manufacturing industry has been squeezed due to rising costs. The raw material industry will benefit from rising prices, while downstream product manufacturers will suffer cost increases if they cannot pass on costs.

Financial listed companies benefited from the increase in interest margins, resulting in a substantial increase in performance. It is expected that financial companies, including banks, will increase by 30% in the first half of this year; while the increase in the prices of beneficial raw materials, including cement, nonferrous metals, and some chemical companies, will see a substantial increase in their first-half results. For example, a number of companies such as Yunnan Salt Chemical Co., Ltd. have revised their interim results a few days ago. It is expected that the company's interim results will increase substantially. The reason for this is mostly due to product price increases. Lida Optoelectronics and other lowering mid-year report performance expectations, the cost increase is the main reason.

Industries that are closely linked to the regulation of macroeconomic policies will experience a significant decline. For example, in the real estate industry, half of the real estate companies that have already disclosed the first-half performance forecast have experienced a decline in performance. Even Golden Land Group, one of the four largest real estate companies, expects its first-half results to decline slightly from the same period last year.

Although the interim results of listed companies are still expected to maintain growth in general, the effect of a slowdown in economic growth is emerging. For example, Shantui shares announced a few days ago that it expects the company's first-half results to be the same as last year. Shantui's net profit for the first quarter increased by 46.05% year-on-year, which means that the company's second-quarter net profit fell sharply year-on-year. Prior to this, the company had expected its first-half performance to increase by more than 50%. Shantui shares reflected the overall condition of the construction machinery industry to a certain extent. After the sales volume of the entire industry exceeded 50% in the first quarter, construction machinery sales fell for the third consecutive quarter in the second quarter. This has a direct bearing on the sharp drop in new projects in the national infrastructure.

“Spring Plumbing Duck Prophet.” For listed companies, the cooling and construction industry is a signal. After many listed companies continue to report their earnings growth, the real test may be in the third quarter.