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Editor's Note: There are often people who talk about the "demand spillover effect" of the auto industry. Simply put, the contribution of automakers to GDP is not only reflected in a whole vehicle. There are thousands of parts in a car. The demand for steel and other raw materials is even more obvious.
However, for a long time, the demand effect of Chinese cars did not seem to have had too much "overflow." One kind of accusation said that "some domestic cars are completely drawn back to foreign parts and once assembled, they are made 'domestic'". Chad seems to make sense, but it also highlights another issue: Why do joint ventures not make domestic parts? Why does China not achieve the high quality and low price of parts and components when labor costs are low?
Domestic cars have been open to the outside world for many years and their performance has been good. One of the logics of openness is to use the market for technology. Now some people say that this strategy has failed because China has not produced any proprietary technology. I think the problem is not to use the market to change the technology, but we used to be too concerned about the car as a whole, and there is no consciousness of "resolving to zero." For example, although it is a joint venture with foreign capital, but it also neglects parts and components projects, it also simply requires the degree of localization of parts and components.
How did the national car cause it? You can compare the history of the automotive industry in Japan and South Korea. Compared with the old car powerhouses such as the United States, Britain and Germany, they all caught up from behind.
The success of the Japanese auto industry is a perfect example of “from zero to fullâ€. In the 1960s, Japan began to develop the automotive industry. At that time, the basis of various machinery industries in Japan was already very good, and many parts and components companies already had strong competitiveness. Under such conditions, Japan's investment in a car plant is relatively small, and most of its parts and components can be outsourced, stimulating the development of local parts companies. With the development of automobile plants, parts and components companies can also follow the upgrade, automobile plants take a step forward, and other small plants also follow. The small investment in the automotive industry and the small risk are very easy to succeed.
The Japanese experience is based on its own advantages. Japan in the 1960s was better than the Chinese foundation in the 1950s. When China invested in FAW and Second Automobile in the 1950s, the steel industry, machinery manufacturing, parts processing, and rubber industries all started from scratch. For these capital-intensive industries, the Chinese people have paid a lot of money. The "bigger and comprehensive" features have not caused the Chinese automobile industry to produce "demand spillovers" like Japan did.
The proper way to develop the auto industry is not only to start from “zeroâ€, but also to require the support of a country’s own resource endowments. South Korea is a counterexample. In Korea in the 1970s, machinery manufacturing capacity was low, and Daewoo, Kia, Hyundai and other automobile plants had large investment scales. Therefore, the government must support these enterprises. Like China, Korean auto companies are beginning to be “big and full†and “small and completeâ€. However, as long as the government provides adequate protection and subsidies, auto factories can always be established. The government has been protecting for many years. With the improvement of Korea’s own endowment structure, capital has become more and more abundant, and now the Korean automotive industry is also competitive in the low-end car market.
If South Korea's auto development waits for the same time as Japan, it may turn out to be more successful at a smaller price. The example of South Korea came to China and it became "the government should support auto companies." In fact, China and South Korea have the same questions to ask: In the past decades, the government has given the automobile industry a lot of protection costs. Is it cost-effective for the entire economy?
Here, some people may conclude that: China's auto industry policy is not allowed, and government-led matters are always wasted in accordance with the above logic. The mainstream public opinion is like this. For China's auto development, it is always open to the outside world in terms of open and closed markets. It has mixed attitudes toward foreign capital and private capital, and it is even inconsistent.
I think that regardless of the degree of openness and the development phase of seeking truth from facts, the development strategy of “resolving to zero†may be even more critical. Seeking truth from facts, we will find that although China's auto industry has passed a costly road, it has come to the present situation. The characteristics of this situation are: capital is richer than before, and development has a good foundation. Now that China is at least comparable to Japan's in the 1960s, Chinese companies have the ability to develop their own auto industry without relying on government support.
Since the development of the domestic auto industry, a new industrial policy has been introduced. Prior to this, criticisms of “through the restriction of access to promote industry consolidation†have not had much effect, but the new auto industry policy has given domestic auto parts and components. Enough attention.
In fact, the government has promised to support the development of automobiles and parts through policies such as tax cuts. In early April of this year, Wei Jianguo, the vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce responsible for automobile trade, reiterated that as the quality and price of domestically-made cars gradually reach the international level, China is expected to achieve a large-scale export of cars around 2006, which will also greatly promote China. Export of auto parts. According to the current national conditions, I think the above goals can be achieved.
According to the article in the Far Eastern Economic Review, for a long time, under the protection of tariff barriers, China's automobile manufacturing industry has been difficult to meet international standards in both price and quality. Although the labor cost is low, the cost of parts and components is not low, and there are few factories that achieve economies of scale. China's joint venture partners preferred local suppliers to restrict competition. In addition to poor quality, a large number of fake and shoddy auto parts can be seen everywhere, making foreign manufacturers deter purchasing parts and components in China.
At present, the new industrial policy restricts the production of automobiles by means of imported parts and assembly methods, and restores the localization rate requirements to some extent. At the same time, the joint venture of parts and components has also accelerated. At least two foreign companies entered the Chinese auto parts market last week. The acceleration of investment by foreign parts and components companies in the country brings more opportunities for domestic companies.
Domestic parts and components companies, whether they are Weifu Hi-tech, Wanxiang Qianchao, Fuyao Glass, which is leading in technology and scale, or parts and components companies that mainly supply to the entire group of auto companies, will benefit from the new industrial policies. By.
The dramatic increase in economies of scale has reduced the cost of domestically produced parts and prices, while the quality and safety requirements have gradually moved closer to international standards. A delightful advantage has been formed, which can be associated with the development of domestic motorcycles. The precondition for the success of Chongqing’s “Mobang†is the advantage of domestically produced parts and components. Now, as long as it has an advantage in the production of auto parts, domestic low-end cars The advantages will emerge.
Today's car is like a color TV in the 1980s. The automobile is also divided into layers. The assembly-oriented, light-weight, and more technologically mature automobile production fully complies with China's comparative advantages. For high-end cars with a large market in China, engines and many key electronic devices cannot be made domestically, and research and development expenses are too high. Joint ventures are the only way.
The new automobile industry development policy has adopted a restrictive attitude toward private capital in order to prevent blind investment. I think that with the further development of the domestic auto parts industry, when domestic autos have greater and greater cost advantages, the development of private autos is unstoppable. And I believe that in the end, China’s industrial policy will correspondingly reduce administrative restrictions, and it will only have more guiding significance.
In the 1960s, the Japanese government had wanted to support only two auto factories -- Toyota and Mitsubishi. In the end, more than a dozen automobile factories entered the auto industry without the support of the government. The results were very successful. The reason for the success of Japan’s Honda, for example, is that Japan’s industrial policy is only instructive rather than administrative. I think China not only has its own "Toyota", but also has its own "Honda."