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The methanol price rose while the domestic transaction volume was light. The downstream companies were more resistant to rising methanol prices. It can be seen that the price increase of methanol is mainly due to the increase in energy prices, not because of the shortage of supply. Analysts pointed out that if the standard cannot be introduced as soon as possible, it will limit the expansion of the domestic methanol market for at least a few years. The smaller market size, in turn, causes the price of methanol to fluctuate too much and eventually affects the profitability of the industry.
Another major use of coal-to-methanol is the conversion to dimethyl ether, which, like methanol-gasoline, also requires the introduction of standards as soon as possible. According to statistics from the Institute of Petroleum and Chemical Industry Planning, in 2007, civilian fuels accounted for an absolute dominant position in the domestic consumption structure of dimethyl ether, which was 94%, vehicle fuel was only 2%, and other uses accounted for 4%. Analysts pointed out that the application of dimethyl ether to diesel has not been fully promoted, and the blind start of production capacity is likely to cause excess.
Faced with the pressure brought by rising oil prices on the domestic economy, where are the concerns of the country in introducing methanol gasoline standards? The industry believes that the introduction of the standard has some resistance. The important reason is that the coal price has risen too fast. The premise of methanol as an alternative energy source is that China's coal resources are abundant, and the price is relatively low, so it is more meaningful to use coal to make methanol to develop alternative energy to ease the pressure of rising international oil. Today's rise in coal prices will inevitably increase the cost of producing methanol.
On the other hand, the substitution of methanol and dimethyl ether for petroleum also needs to consider safety factors. What proportion of methanol injection is the most efficient and safest, and how much damage will be caused by the new type of oil to the vehicle will be repeatedly verified and improved. The experts also analyzed that one of the main directions for the future development of dimethyl ether is to replace diesel, but it also requires a time-consuming market cultivation process.
It is understood that at present, dimethyl ether fuel vehicles have taken the lead in the use of public transport systems in some cities in China. In 2007, the first batch of 10 dimethyl ether buses were launched in Shanghai and the first DME refueling station was built. In 2008, 100 vehicles will be opened. By 2010, there will be 1,000 DME buses in Shanghai. Shanxi was the first province to promote methanol gasoline. Shanxi province promulgated 2008 "M5, M15 vehicle methanol gasoline", 2008 "vehicle methanol gasoline denatured alcohol", 2008 "vehicle methanol gasoline component oil" and 2008 "M85, M100 methanol fuel" four kinds of methanol fuel Standards, and has been widely used in the province to use M15. According to a two-year trial in Shanxi, M15 methanol gasoline can be used without additives. As methanol gasoline is rich in oxygen and combustion is more efficient than ethanol gasoline, the actual use effect is not significantly different from that of pure gasoline.
On June 9th, although the international crude oil futures price fell slightly, it was still as high as US$133 per barrel. On the one hand, the price of oil has not yet come down. On the other hand, China’s coal resources are abundant, and the development of alternative energy sources has a more cost advantage. Under this situation, the industry generally believes that the introduction of relevant standards will not be too far. On January 1, this year, the industry standard for “dimethyl ether for town gas†has been implemented, which has, to a certain extent, promoted the increase in the demand for dimethyl ether, which in turn promoted the growth of methanol demand. The Industrial Securities report predicts that "M15 methanol gasoline for vehicles", "denatured fuel methanol" and "high-proportion vehicle methanol gasoline" are expected to be completed in the first half of 2008.
Analysts believe that the state holds a positive attitude towards the development of alternative energy sources, and the successful implementation of alternative energy sources in some cities is more conducive to general promotion across the country. Faced with the pressure of high oil prices, the pace of energy substitution will be faster and faster.
The introduction of standard methanol to expand the market is the key
The construction of domestic coal chemical projects is rushing, and the release of a large amount of production capacity is just around the corner. On the other hand, methanol-related alternative product standards still do not appear. Some analysts pointed out that if the national methanol gasoline standard can be introduced in time, the market demand for methanol fuel will increase substantially. In 2010, China's methanol demand will reach or exceed 25 million tons. When is the standard introduced as the key to release of production capacity.