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In fact, since 2013, the domestic support policies for the LED industry have been continuously introduced. The National Development and Reform Commission and other six ministries have jointly compiled the “Semiconductor Lighting Energy Conservation Industry Planâ€, pointing out that by 2015, all incandescent lamps for general lighting above 60W will be eliminated, LED lighting. The development goal of the energy-saving industry is that the output value will increase by about 30 per year. In 2015, it will reach 450 billion yuan (including 180 billion yuan for LED lighting applications). Subsequently, various provinces and cities have also introduced corresponding support subsidy policies, such as the LED recommended product catalogue issued by Guangdong. The above-mentioned policies were gradually implemented, and the LED industry began to go out of the downturn for years and gradually improved. In addition, according to relevant statistics, the domestic 60 LED lighting products are sold abroad, the main market is Western Europe and North America, and on December 18 last year, the United States decided to stop selling the best-selling 40-watt and 60-watt incandescent lamps in the sales market. The market space has triggered a hot pursuit of market capital.
However, relying on good news, it is impossible to attract funds to continue to flow into a sector, and it is even more difficult to form a plate effect, which depends largely on the improvement of the fundamentals of the industry. After 2010, due to the encouragement and support of local policies, the LED industry was seriously overcapacity, and related enterprises entered vicious competition. The industry boom continued to decline. For example, the growth rate of the upstream chip market dropped from 100 in 2010 to 20. In 2013, after a period of fierce price competition, after a part of backward production capacity was eliminated, the supply side of the industry began to shrink. According to estimates by CITIC Securities, there are about 1,600 MOCVD machines in mainland China and Taiwan, and the ineffective capacity is about 600. The comprehensive efficiency of some 1000 units of effective equipment is about 80, which is already at a benign level.
From the demand side, backlights, lighting and display screens are the three major components of LED demand, of which backlights account for the largest proportion, but with the downward revision of backlight demand in 2013, the potential market trillions of lighting The start of the sector will drive the explosive growth of the LED sector in 2014. In addition, changes in the above-mentioned demand side have also been confirmed from the company level. According to Shenwan's three-level industry classification, there are 20 stocks in the LED sector, of which 13 stocks are pre-history in the third quarter of 2013, accounting for 65, with an average growth rate of more than 30.
Need to dig deeper into market opportunities. From the perspective of the market, the big leap forward in the TMT sector in 2013 allowed the market funds to deepen their recognition of the structural market. However, as the growth of each segment expanded, the willingness to chase the market capital decreased, especially It was the early stage of mobile games and film and television that began to evaluate and repair the market. The overall risk aversion sentiment rose, and the funds that were added and withdrawn from the previous hotspots sought to find value and gains. A private equity source interviewed by the reporter said that the LED sector did not have a clear trend of rising prices from the end of 2012, showing a wide fluctuation trend, the overall growth of the sector lags behind the entire TMT sector, from the perspective of the sector rotation, in each In the later stage of the round of theme investment, the funds will carry out the rotation of such stocks in order to achieve investors' confidence that the market's profit-making effect is obvious, which will help the funds to smoothly cash in the chips from the early hot spots.
However, although the LED industry has shown signs of improvement, we still have to realize that the industry as a whole is still in a state of overcapacity. In the face of new changes in supply and demand, the size of investment opportunities will be very different. This requires us to start with new changes at the industry level, to find companies that can quickly adapt to and meet new needs, only the performance of such companies will maintain rapid growth.