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Bottom out! This may be good news for the automotive diesel engine market. Because the market continues to decline for many years, too many companies are expecting a rebound in diesel sales. But has it really hit bottom? Has the rebound come?
From January to August of this year, the cumulative production and sales volume of 22 diesel engine companies, including statistics, totaled 1,830,800 units and 1,718,200 units, which represented a 4.9% increase in output and a sales increase of 3.39% compared with the same period of the previous year. This was seen by some people in the industry as a signal that the automotive diesel engine has bottomed out.
In fact, the national economic trend and investment in infrastructure construction are still the key factors that determine whether the sales volume of diesel engines can rebound. Since the beginning of this year, the heavy-duty truck market in China has shown a recovery trend. From January to August, the sales volume of heavy-duty trucks increased by nearly 10% year-on-year, providing support for the growth of diesel engine sales and profit recovery. However, the passenger car market has been developing poorly, sales of medium and large-sized passenger cars have continued to grow, and sales of light passengers have fallen by 15%.
Strengthening the layout of core products, reducing costs and increasing efficiency, increasing the profit rate of stand-alone machines, and expanding into non-road markets are the development routes that many diesel engine companies currently choose. At the 15th China International Combustion Engine and Components Exhibition, the reporter conducted an interview with industry experts and business people. Overall, most people think that the automotive diesel market has bottomed out, but it will not rebound sharply, and steady growth is the main tone in the coming years.
Pan Zhongde, General Manager of Anhui Quanchai Power Co., Ltd.:
The market has bottomed out, rebound may not necessarily appear
I think that judging from the sales volume and pattern of commercial vehicle segments in January-August this year, it will be premature to determine that the automotive diesel engine market will rebound. The main reason is that the macroeconomic development has not improved the commercial vehicle market. Demand, diesel engine sales have no obvious room for growth. At present, the pressure on diesel engine companies is still very large, not in the road area. There is no obvious growth trend in subdivided areas such as tractors and forklift trucks, indicating that the diesel engine market has bottomed out.
A diesel engine enters another door from one door. For example, entering the light truck market from the heavy truck market, or entering the non-road market from the light truck market. I do not know, another market is more competitive. At present, many companies are over-optimistic about market expectations, and are strongly entering the non-road countries and even the four countries in the future. Actually, in this market, there are many small companies, products compete at low prices, and the market is fiercer. The light truck market will only be reduced in size in the future. Although it is developing towards high-end, the market share of high-end products is less than 30%, making landfall landing more difficult.
Wu Hairong, Vice Minister of Sales, Marketing Center of Jiangxi Isuzu Engine Co., Ltd.:
Future market development curve showing wave <br> <br> Jiangxi Isuzu import new products constantly in recent years, sales have been rapid growth. In my opinion, the development of hybrid and pure electric light trucks will have an impact on the sales of Jiangxi Isuzu and other traditional diesel engine companies. In the future, it may even cause difficulties for some small diesel engine manufacturers.
From the perspective of the demand of the entire internal combustion engine industry, the sales of the truck market in the first quarter of this year were not good, and the heavy trucks in the second quarter increased, which is related to the recent real estate investment fever. In addition, the implementation of the third national emission policy in the non-road sector is a development platform for leading technology companies, which has a positive effect on sales growth. In my opinion, in the short term, the national large-scale project construction and related policies will not bring significant stimulation to the market. The development curve of the diesel engine market will be wave-like and will not rebound significantly.
Xing Min, executive vice president and secretary general of China Internal Combustion Engine Industry Association:
In the second half of the year, the diesel engine market has a good momentum of development
At present, the development of the entire internal combustion engine market is very stable and is expected to reach 6% to 8% growth throughout the year. The main reason is that the development momentum of light and heavy commercial vehicles has improved, and the effect of the implementation of the national “One Belt and One Road†policy will gradually show up in the next few years. The development of the automotive diesel engine segment is expected to grow steadily.
At this stage, the development of the city's logistics industry has accelerated, driving the development of light commercial vehicles, and the long-distance logistics areas such as trunk transportation still have room for improvement, which is the key to the improvement of heavy truck sales. In addition, the agricultural diesel engine has completed the task of upgrading the country in the country two. In the second half of this year, this sector will also successfully complete the expected goal. With the increase of product reliability of domestic enterprises, the export market of diesel engines will also improve.
Huang Yi, Deputy General Manager of Guangxi Yuchai Machinery Co., Ltd. Sales Company:
Truck Demand Increases Significantly <br><br><br><br><br> This year's truck market shows signs of growth. Yuchai's market share in the passenger car market has been accompanied by increased sales of tractors, especially in the high-end logistics market.
In the second half of the year, the towing vehicle market still has room for improvement and the diesel engine market will develop steadily in the future. During the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†period, the country has already identified hundreds of major construction projects. The country’s investment in the construction of the western region will increase, which will drive the development demand of the tractor market, and the gas-electric hybrid heavy trucks will also gradually increase in volume. In the area of ​​passenger cars, the demand for hybrid buses in first-tier and second-tier cities will increase rapidly in the coming years.
Huang Chenghai, deputy director of FAW-liberated Wuxi Diesel Engine Factory:
The logistics industry to bring good <br> <br> statistics from the industry point of view, heavy-duty diesel engine production and sales has shown a growth trend. The market demand structure has undergone some changes. The development of highway logistics vehicles has been rapid and the construction vehicle industry has performed generally.
At present, China's logistics industry has entered a period of rapid development, and it has obviously driven the sales of commercial vehicles. However, the effect of the country’s macro investment has not yet been reflected, and there will be no significant increase in the demand for diesel engines for construction vehicles.
From the point of view of Xichai products, the demand for Xichai Aowei high horsepower engine market is growing, thanks to the outstanding performance of J6 trucks of FAW Jiefang Company in the field of road transport, with an increase of over 50% in the market. In the future, heavy trucks will continue to be the key development market for Xichai. The maintenance of 700,000 to 800,000 vehicles in China’s medium and heavy truck market will become the norm.
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