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Overall, there are four main factors that may trigger the adjustment of rubber prices:
First, domestic and foreign economies are decelerating synchronously, which is the biggest risk factor for the deep adjustment of rubber prices. The United States and the world economy have slowed down, oil prices have risen sharply, consumers have tightened spending, and the auto market in major countries such as the United States, Japan, and the European Union has fallen into a downturn, which has directly caused a decline in the export level of Chinese rubber products, especially the decline in exports to the United States. At the same time, the Chinese economy has also cooled, and the pressure on car sales has gradually increased.
According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, a total of 2.456 million vehicles were sold nationwide from January to April, which represented a year-on-year increase of 17.84%, a decrease of nearly 3 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, April sales fell by 11.2% month-on-month, only an increase of 7.2% year-on-year; the country’s overall auto prices fell by 3.21% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.19% month-on-month. The sales in May are also not satisfactory. This deserted state is likely to continue into July and August. It can be seen that the simultaneous slowdown in economic growth at home and abroad, especially the shrinking of the largest consumer goods market in the United States, has led to weakening of the biggest supporting factors for the rise in rubber prices over the years.
Second, the depreciation of the dollar gradually bottomed out. After the United States fell into the subprime mortgage crisis, the Fed cut interest rates frequently and the economic interests of the holders of the US dollar were damaged. This has become an important factor in the depreciation of the US dollar. Due to the increasing inflationary pressures at this stage, especially the side effects of restraining consumption, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates and rescue the market will come to an end. The current round of interest rate cuts of more than 300 basis points may end in the near future.
Affected by it, the devaluation of the US dollar, which lasted for several years, may gradually bottom out in the second half of 2008. If the depreciation of the US dollar starts to bottom out, it will definitely push down the prices of all primary products. Some analysts believe that if the U.S. dollar rises by 1%, international oil prices will fall by 4 U.S. dollars per barrel. The fall in base oil prices will undoubtedly drive down the price of rubber.
The third is the two-way adjustment of the relationship between supply and demand by high prices. On the one hand, the sharp rise in prices of primary products is gradually transmitted to the final consumer goods, which is bound to curb consumption growth. US Standard & Poor's analysis shows that due to rising fuel prices and tight loan demand, U.S. car sales will fall to 14.9 million vehicles this year, the lowest since 1995. Not only that, the increase in unemployment and inflation have also driven consumer compressors to move, reducing the consumption of tires in stock vehicles. This is an important reason for the apparent slowdown in the export of rubber products such as Chinese tires.
On the other hand, rising rubber prices have led to the emergence of high profits in this area, which has not only stimulated a dramatic increase in the area of ​​natural rubber planted in Southeast Asia, but also has led to a significant increase in the area of ​​plastic trees planted in China, especially the development of private rubber. According to relevant data, currently the total area of ​​rubber planted in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan Province alone has reached 615 million mu, which has increased by about one time from 2000 and increased more than in the 1990s, far exceeding the official data. Some of these new gum trees have already entered the opening cut, and the volume of listing will increase year by year. If serious natural disasters do not occur this year, it is expected that the annual production of natural rubber is expected to continue to increase substantially, and it is very likely that it will achieve or even exceed 800,000 tons.
Fourth, the operational steering of speculative funds. On the whole, the global excess liquidity in the previous period, the strong demand in China, and the depreciation of the dollar have spawned a huge amount of hedging and hedging needs. This is the three major foundations for speculative funds to take advantage of the situation and to increase their strategies. With the gradual changes in the above conditions, and the price itself has entered a high-risk price, the speculative fund will consider the adjustment of its main direction of operation. In fact, there has never been a commodity in the market that has only risen. At present, the prices of oil and other commodities have risen too high and too fast, and have reached the high level of "prosperity" that impairs economic growth itself. The risk is natural.
In the future, with the slowdown in the growth of Chinese rubber products' export growth, the weakening of rubber processing trade volume, and the declining demand for rubber, the “China demand factor†that has been speculative by international speculative funds will no longer be bright, but will gradually Weakened. The supporting factors for the strong rise in the prices of primary products such as oil and rubber at home and abroad are not stable. If risk factors are exerted at the same time, there will be a deep adjustment in the rubber prices.
The rubber market has long been at a high level of crisis
Since April, although the growth rate of new resources has declined and consumption has once again increased, the overall loosening of supply and demand in the domestic rubber market has not changed. In the near term, due to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, geopolitics, and speculative funds that have not yet been withdrawn from the oil sector, rubber prices will remain high. However, from the mid-to-long term point of view, due to the weakening and disappearance of support factors for price increases in the previous period, it may trigger a deep adjustment in the rubber market.