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The commercial vehicle industry has always been referred to as the barometer of the development of the national economy in the automotive sector. The growth rate of production and sales in the first half of 2011 fell sharply. In June, the performance of commercial vehicles remained sluggish. In the first half of this year, commercial vehicles produced and sold 2,111,100 units and 2,219,900 units. With a drop of 6.07% and 3.67% from the same period last year, it is no wonder that people in the industry generally believe that the commercial vehicle examination in the first half of the year has failed.
In the second half of 2011, the direction of the market will go from here. At present, many favorable factors are expected to promote a certain rebound: The implementation of the "Regulations on the Protection of Highway Safety" from July 1, 2011 has increased the crackdown on violations of overloading and violations. For most logistics companies, if you want to continue to maintain the existing shipments, product purchases will become the only choice; the country is also actively formulating policies to reduce logistics costs from the policy level, the State Council executive meeting decided to reduce taxes, land policies, reduce We will proceed with cross-border tolls and increase investment in the logistics industry to further promote the healthy development of the logistics industry. 
In addition, the increase in the retirement subsidies for old cars will also be expected to be a good medicine to stimulate the development of the commercial vehicle market. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce stated that they would provide capital subsidy for city buses, rural passenger vehicles and heavy-duty trucks that meet certain conditions, be retired in advance, and increase the amount of subsidy for early retirement vehicles, extending the useful life of subsidized vehicles. In view of this, for the commercial vehicle industry, which is highly sensitive to industrial policies, the days of the second half are expected to be better.
Product structure into a market barometer
Looking at the subdivision structure of commercial vehicles, it is easy to see that heavy trucks have the fastest decline in production and sales, and they have a higher degree of correlation with the overall economy, and they are also the most likely to focus on performance. In the first half of 2011, sales of the top three companies accounted for 54% of the total sales of the top nine companies in sales. This figure was 62% last year, and the market concentration has declined. 
Specifically, the Dongfeng commercial vehicle market share in the first half of 2011 was 21% (19.7% last year), 17% heavy truck (19.8% last year), and 16.1% FAW (last year 22.6%). Among them, FAW's decline was most serious. According to the relevant person in charge of the liberation of FAW, the decline in the liberation market share was mainly due to the decline in the production and sales volume of the Liuate, Qingdao and Chengdu bases of the liberation company. In addition, FAW liberation has always been famous for tractors. In 2011, due to the overall impact of a drastic drop in the tractor market, it was difficult to escape the dilemma of slumping production and sales.
In contrast, Dongfeng Tianlong tractors, Dongfeng Hercules dump trucks and Dongfeng brand modified vehicles have all gained market recognition. In addition, it is understood that with the shift of Shanxi's largest province from Shanxi to Inner Mongolia, Beiben Heavy Gas has also achieved rapid development with its geographical advantage, and the regional advantages are undoubtedly reflected.
For the passenger car market, it is generally easy to associate large-scale events, events, and projects. The growth in the sales of passenger cars can indeed bring immediate results. In the first half of 2011, the sales volume of buses gradually increased, driving the sales of large buses. 
From the data point of view, 7 of the top 10 sales companies have achieved significant growth, which is a bright spot in the first half of the commercial vehicle market. It is indeed commendable.
In the second half of the year, it is generally accepted that the regional restructuring will continue to bring certain regional features. At present, the eastern, central and western regions have completed investment in transport fixed assets of 212.6 billion yuan, 139.6 billion yuan and 233.2 billion yuan, respectively, an increase of 15.9 percent. %, 18.7%, and 13.4%, the amount of investment in the western region continues to lead, and the development and competition for the western market in the future will become a compulsory course for enterprises.
The logistics is expensive and the oil price is high. Unfavorable factors still need to be eased
Talking about the important factors affecting commercial vehicles in the first half of the year, higher and higher logistics costs and rising oil prices have become a major concern in the industry.
According to the latest data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the total value of China's social logistics and logistics industry has reached 125 trillion yuan and 2.7 trillion yuan, respectively, an average annual increase of 21% and 16.7%, but the excessive cost has been Restrict the biggest obstacle to the development and growth of the logistics industry. Among them, China's total logistics cost accounted for about 18% of GDP in 2010, which is twice as high as that of developed countries. Fuel costs are the most important factor in logistics costs. It is estimated that the cost of fuel currently accounts for more than 40% of the cost of logistics companies. 
In addition, it is understood that China's circulation costs account for 50%-70% of prices. At present, China's logistics transportation is relatively backward, with 40% of its transportation capacity being unloaded. China's logistics costs are 1-2 times higher than the world average. More than 90% of domestic goods are used in warehousing, transportation, packaging, distribution, and other links, resulting in low logistics efficiency and high prices.
It is not difficult to imagine the industrial effects resulting from this, and the unfavorable factors of truck and road logistics will also directly lead to the decline of truck sales. Looking at the entire industry chain, as a basic industry, the high cost will inevitably erode the profits of downstream entity industries. Increase the final cost of goods, and severely squeeze the profits on the industrial chain.