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Reuters survey of the top 10 industry analysts and agencies expects that the global daily crude oil demand this year is expected to increase 1.5 million barrels to 8.610 million barrels, the highest since 2007.
At the same time, OPEC crude oil output and OPEC member natural gas liquid (NGL) production will both increase. OPEC production growth is expected to make the global crude oil inventory far above the five-year average.
Michael Wittner, Head of Crude Oil Research at Societe Generale, said that the rise in oil prices means that producers can increase investment, thereby slowing the rate of decline in North Sea and Mexico production. At the same time, North American and Russian production has expanded.
Wittner pointed out, "Corporate investment rebounded faster than we had previously expected. Non-OPEC supply unexpectedly increased in the first half of this year, so inventory did not fall as expected."
On the eve of the global financial crisis, oil prices soared to an all-time high of nearly $150 a barrel. However, as demand fell and fell from the end of 2008 to the early part of 2009 to around $40, it caused market fears: If investment in future capacity were to be cancelled, The price of oil will soar again.
Since July 2009, the average oil price has remained at more than US$75 per barrel, which is the second-highest 12-month average, and investment has been sustained. Some people have therefore speculated that this time has avoided the “rise and fall†of the history of the crude oil industry. "cycle.
Helen Henton, Head of Global Energy and Environment Research at Standard Chartered Bank, said, "Our demand/supply model shows that global inventory will remain high this year and will only decline slowly in 2011 at current production levels."
**Supply unexpected increase**
The higher-than-expected production of non-OPEC oil-producing countries resulted in the price of oil falling back from the 19-month high of more than 87 dollars a barrel in early May to the current level of around 71 dollars.
Since March, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has increased its daily production of non-OPEC oil-producing countries by 500,000 barrels per day to 52.3 million barrels per day. Since March, Goldman Sachs has also increased its production forecast by 1.2 million barrels. Barrels, to 52.1 million barrels per day. Barclays Capital's estimate also increased by about 400,000 barrels.
Barrett Capital analyst Amrita Sen said, "Overall, demand has been relatively strong, not only the demand of developing countries is growing, the United States is also growing, but European demand still lags behind."
"The supply of non-OPEC oil-producing countries has unexpectedly increased, but it is still doubtful whether this trend can be maintained in the coming years. The mid-term review of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill will lead to more legislation and producers' costs will begin to increase."
The growth in demand mainly occurs in Asia's fast-growing economies. China's average daily demand is expected to increase by 700,000-800,000 barrels per day this year, but most analysts expect growth to slow next year.
**OPEC production slightly increases**
OPEC's daily output of crude oil this year needs to increase by 400,000 barrels per day to reach 29.3 million barrels per day in order to balance the market.
Including Iraq, OPEC’s crude oil production in May was 29.29 million barrels per day, which fell slightly in June.
The rise in oil prices and the recovery in demand have led to OPEC's goal of limiting production from the peak of about 80% at the beginning of 2009 to the current 50-55%.
Natural gas liquids are part of the energy supply and OPEC member states can increase their supply without violating the limit production targets.
OPEC liquid natural gas production is expected to reach 5.2 million barrels per day this year, an increase of 20% since 2008.
Global crude oil production growth is strong, overshadowing demand growth
The global crude oil production growth rate in 2010 will be faster than previously expected, benefiting from a strong rebound in oil prices from the trough during the crisis, ensuring that demand growth will not tighten supply, at least within a year.