China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts sales growth of about 20 million vehicles in 2012

"Last year, China's auto industry has maintained a steady development with slight growth. This year we forecast annual sales of about 20 million vehicles, with an increase of around 8%."

On January 12, at the 2012 China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the China Automobile Industry Association) monthly information conference, the Deputy Secretary-General of China National Automobile Association, Shi Jianhua on behalf of the Association summarized the economic performance of the automotive industry in 2011, and The development of the automotive industry in 2012 made predictions.

Last year, the growth rate of industry production and sales reached the lowest level in 13 years. In 2011, under the backdrop of weak international economic growth, slower growth of domestic economy, and gradual withdrawal of industry encouragement policies, the production and sales of China’s auto industry were respectively 18,419,900 and 18,505,100 units. It has grown steadily with a slight increase, but sales growth has been the lowest in 13 years. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars increased by 4.23% and 5.19% year-on-year respectively, and the production and sales of passenger cars rose by 5.87% and 6.62% respectively. In this regard, Shi Jianhua analyzed: “The demand for the passenger car market has been steadily increasing, which shows that with the further increase in residents’ income, the automobile is already one of the most important consumer goods and is the main force for stimulating domestic demand.”

Contrary to the rising momentum of passenger vehicles, in 2011, the production and sales of commercial vehicles fell 9.94% and 6.31% respectively year-on-year. Shi Jianhua analyzed that the continued sluggish production and sales of trucks were mainly affected by macroeconomic factors such as the slowdown in infrastructure construction; and passenger cars benefited from the increase in urban logistics, residents' travel and tourism spending in 2011, an increase of 7.92% and 10.11 year-on-year. %, becoming the only growth model in commercial vehicles.

In addition, in stark contrast to the overall slight growth in production and sales, the rapid growth of exports in 2011 has become a bright spot in the downturn of the industry. According to the statistics of China National Automobile Industry Corporation (SAIC), the export of auto vehicle manufacturers, in 2011, the number of auto exports was 814,300, an increase of 49.45% year-on-year, an increase of 269,400 vehicles over the same period of the previous year, a record high. "It can be said that automobile exports have become the main force driving the growth of automobile production and sales this year," said Shi Jianhua.

In 2011, despite the limited expansion of overall automobile production and sales, the economic benefits of the industry have maintained a certain percentage of growth. From the perspective of the economic benefits of the 17 key enterprise groups (Express Reports), from January to November 2011, the accumulated industrial value-added increased by 6.81% year-on-year, and the accumulated total industrial output value increased by 5.36% year-on-year. The accumulated operating revenue increased by 9.60% year-on-year. , Completion of total profit growth of 12.81%. "The increase in total industrial output value is higher than the increase in output, which shows that China's auto industry has achieved a certain degree of structural adjustment in its product structure and the added value of its products has increased," said Shi Jianhua.

It is expected that the growth rate of automobile sales in 2012 will be 8%

According to Shi Jianhua, the China Automobile Industry Association collected more than 20 vehicle manufacturers' forecast data for this year's sales, and solicited predictions from market sales executives of major manufacturers in the industry, combined with the development of macroeconomics, and research and discussion by experts of the Association. Analyze and predict "about 20 million cars in 2012, with an increase rate of 8%."

Shi Jianhua said that the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts that passenger vehicle sales this year will be about 15.87 million vehicles, with a growth rate of about 9.5%. Among them, the sales volume of cars is about 11.18 million, with the growth rate being about 10.5%; the sales of SUVs are about 1.85 million, and the growth rate is about 16%; the sales volume of MPV is about 560,000, and the growth rate is about 13%; The sales volume of vehicles is about 2.28 million vehicles, with a growth rate of about 1%. In addition, the Association expects sales of passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6L or less to reach 10.32 million units, with a growth rate of around 5%.

In terms of commercial vehicles, China National Automobile Association predicts that the annual sales volume will be around 4.11 million units, with a growth rate of about 2%, which is basically the same as last year. Among them, the sales volume of trucks is estimated to be about 3.3 million vehicles, with a growth rate of 1%; the sales volume of passenger cars is expected to be around 550,000 vehicles, with a growth rate of 14%; the sales volume of semitrailer tractors is expected to be around 260,000 vehicles, with a growth rate of 1 %about.

The China National Automobile Association also expects the export volume of the whole industry this year to be between 1.05 million and 1.1 million, which is an increase of between 25% and 30%. Among them, passenger car exports are expected to be 550,000-600,000, an increase of 25% to 30%; commercial vehicles are expected to export about 450,000, an increase of 25%.

There are several factors affecting the annual auto sales, according to Shi Jianhua. The main reasons that affect the auto sales and growth rate this year are the following five favorable factors and four unfavorable factors.

The favorable influence factors include: macroeconomic stability and progress, providing a favorable economic environment for the development of the automotive industry; gradual adjustment of the market structure, product diversification, miniaturization and energy saving to provide consumers with more choice; national policy encourages expansion Domestic demand, increase residents' income, expand social security coverage, will increase consumer confidence in the auto market; rigid demand for auto consumption continues to exist, China's auto consumption will enter a period of steady growth for a long period of time; China's auto international competitiveness will gradually increase, and continue to develop The international market has provided guarantees for the growth of auto exports.

The unfavorable factors include: the global economic growth will continue to slow down, and the demand for the automotive market will be inhibited; the total automobile sales base will be large and high-speed growth will be difficult to maintain; the automobile use environment will tend to be strict and the automobile consumption cost will increase, which will restrain some Consumer demand; appreciation of the renminbi, increased trade frictions, and continued strengthening of trade barriers will have adverse effects on automobile exports.