· 70% of mainstream auto companies failed to meet sales expectations

In 2016, more than half of the time, for the independent brands, relying on the collective efforts of SUV, the market share has been further improved, the sales transcripts in the first half of the year can also be put on the word "excellent".
According to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the cumulative sales of passenger cars in the first half of the year was 11.0423 million, an increase of 9.23%. Among them, the self-owned brand passenger cars sold a total of 4,734,500 units, an increase of 12.78% year-on-year, accounting for 42.88% of the total sales of passenger cars, and the occupancy rate increased by 1.35% over the same period of the previous year.
As can be seen from the above data, the sales growth of self-owned brands has outperformed the “big market”. However, such changes are mainly due to the hot sales of autonomous SUVs. According to the statistics of the China Automobile Association, from January to June this year, the sales of self-owned SUVs reached 2.171 million, a year-on-year increase of 52.3%, accounting for 56.4% of the total SUV market, an increase of 3 percentage points over the same period last year.
The overall development of self-owned brands is good, but it is surprising that among the 11 mainstream auto companies in this survey, more than 70% of the companies that did not meet the half-year sales expectations.
â–  Only four car companies complete the half-year target
In 2015, due to the “blowout” of the SUV market, a considerable number of independent car companies earned “pots full”. Therefore, some experts predict that from last year, independent brands will enter a period of rapid development. Since 2016, when the prospects of the SUV market are still optimistic, the independent car companies have “tailor-made” or aggressive or cautious annual sales targets at the beginning of the year. However, over half of the time, the "big words" that was originally promised now complete the geometry?
In this statistic, a total of 11 mainstream independent brand passenger car companies are involved. Among them, only Changan Automobile, Jianghuai Automobile, Guangzhou Automobile Passenger Vehicle and Dongfeng Passenger Vehicle completed the half-year sales forecast according to the agreement, and the other seven car companies failed to meet expectations.
Among the self-owned car companies that meet the standards, Changan Automobile and Guangzhou Automobile Passenger Vehicles are the most outstanding. Among them, Changan Automobile's cumulative sales from January to June was 563,900 units, a significant increase of 38.65% compared with 406,700 units in the same period last year. At the beginning of the year, Changan Automobile set a sales target of 830,000 vehicles. It seems that the completion rate of 67.94% is enough for Changan Automobile to rest easy for the remaining six months. It is worth mentioning that if there is no accident, Changan’s annual sales volume is likely to exceed one million.
In addition to Changan Automobile, the sales volume of GAC passenger cars has exceeded half a year's expectations. The data shows that Guangzhou Automobile passenger car achieved sales of 167,100 new cars in the first half of the year, an increase of 173%. It is reported that the annual target of Guangzhou Automobile Passenger Vehicle is 280,000 units, and the completion rate from 1 to 6 months is 59.68%. GAC did not set the year-end goal too "magnificent", and set realistic goals after rationally assessing its own strength and market.
Among the four self-owned car companies that have completed the half-year sales forecast, the hot sale of SUV is still the most important feature and an important guarantee for achieving the year-end goal. It is understood that CS35 and CS75 have contributed a lot to Changan's sales. The two models sold 90,500 and 96,900 units respectively in the first half of the year, with an average monthly sales of more than 15,000 units. In addition, although from the single-month sales, Changan's several MPV and SUV sales have declined, but thanks to more models, the market segment is more widely distributed, so Changan Automobile can still occupy the first place in independent sales with product matrix advantage. . In terms of GAC passenger cars, although there is no Chang'an “Guangsha Net”, the brand has “eat all the days” with a model of GS4. It is reported that the cumulative sales volume of GS4 in the first half of the year was 159,900, accounting for more than 90% of the total sales of GAC passenger cars.
Compared with the four car companies that have reached the above standards, the remaining autonomous car companies in the survey are not so lucky. Among them, some car companies seem to be only one step away from "passing", and the other part is too big a gap with the sales target. This year, I am afraid that "the city will be defeated."
â–  Blind optimism leads to difficult sales targets
The 7 independent automakers who failed to complete the mid-year sales forecast will be somewhat surprised. The Great Wall, Beiqi, Geely, Chery, BYD, FAW and SAIC passenger cars are all on the list. Some car companies are difficult to complete due to excessively high sales targets, while others are not performing well due to poor performance of key models.
The data shows that the sales target of SAIC passenger vehicles in 2016 was 240,000 units. The cumulative sales volume from January to June this year was 117,900 units, with a completion rate of 49.12%. The SAIC passenger car is only one step away from the “passing line”. Geely's situation is similar. It is understood that the brand achieved sales of 292,100 new cars in the first half of the year, with a target of 600,000 vehicles for the whole year, with a completion rate of 48.68%. After all, the auto market in the first half of the year has unstable factors. Every February is the off-season of the auto market, and there is a small impact on sales. After entering the second half of the year, if the company can seize the opportunity of “Golden September, Silver 10”, the sales target should be stable.
In addition to the above two car companies, other self-owned brand passenger cars may not be so lucky. From January to June this year, the cumulative sales volume of Great Wall Motor was 455,300 units, and the sales completion rate was 47.4%. At first glance, the failure of the Great Wall seems to be somewhat "devious", but there are many reasons for it. First of all, Great Wall Motor's sales target for 2016 is 950,000 units, ranking first among its own brands in terms of quantity. Secondly, the imbalance between the development of cars and SUVs has always been an issue that the Great Wall cannot avoid. In addition, the Great Wall's Haval brand is too risky to rely on a H6 "live".
The "non-compliance" of BAIC's autonomy is more or less because the sales target is too "outrageous". It is reported that BAIC's own brand achieved sales of 243,100 units in the first half of the year. Among them, the sales volume of Beiqi Yubao from January to June reached 92,000 units, a year-on-year growth rate of nearly 80%. In this way, performance is better. However, the year-end sales target of 700,000 to 800,000 may be too “reluctant”, resulting in the completion rate of BAIC's own brand is less than 35%. Even if heavyweight products are launched in the second half of the year, the target will be difficult to achieve.
And independent auto companies such as Chery, BYD, and FAW are more likely to lose their sales due to the unsatisfactory sales of their models.
â–  Do not regard SUV as the only source of sales
The increase in sales volume and market share does not obscure the “partial” phenomenon of self-owned brands.
According to sales data, the cumulative sales of self-owned brand cars in the first half of this year was 1.055 million, down 15.5% year-on-year, accounting for only 19.0% of total car sales, down 2.6% from the same period of the previous year.
The weakness of independent brands in the car sector has been going on for a long time. The downward pressure of the joint venture brand makes it difficult for independent brands to breathe in this market segment. In addition, factors such as slow model replacement and low brand premium rate make car sales. It is difficult to see the independent products in the forefront of the list. There are only 4 independent models in the top 50 cars.
In addition, in the top ten models in the SUV market in June, the advantages of the independent SUV products are not as good as before. Only three models were selected, and only the Haval H6 remained in the dominant position.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Information Association, said that the advantage of self-owned brand SUV sales mainly depends on the new car, the brand strength is still insufficient, and the competitive advantage mainly depends on the price/performance ratio. Such products are difficult to survive. From the sales data in the first half of the year, SUVs still have obvious growth rates. However, the self-owned brand SUVs with better performance are still concentrated in the low-end and mid-end markets, while the main high-end self-owned SUV products are not much, and the market share is also small. With the joint venture brand to accelerate the layout of the compact and the following SUV, the independent SUV will survive in the short-term and high-end market opportunities through price advantage in the short term.
At this stage, independent brands will put more energy into the SUV market, but the industry generally believes that over-reliance on the SUV market will only bring more crises to independent brands, and companies that can develop in a balanced manner in two market segments. It will be more competitive. Cui Dongshu believes that although the market share of sedan has been diverted by the SUV market in recent years, the importance of sedan as the largest market segment in the current auto market is still not negligible, and independent brands should strengthen the competitiveness of the sedan market.

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