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Since April, tight diesel resources and low import volume have caused prices to continue to climb. Starting from April, the Chinese diesel market is once again in a state of supply less than demand, and the ratio of supply and demand has slipped to 142:100 (see chart 1). The ratio is between 160:100-190:100). With the rapid rise in international oil prices, domestic price adjustment is expected to re-emerge, "false" demand again expanded, China's diesel consumption in April anomalously increased by nearly 1 million tons.
In the same month, China's diesel production was 10.536 million tons, an increase of only 5.6% year-on-year and 4% lower than the same period of the previous month. Only 520,000 tons of diesel were imported during the same period, only a 5% increase from the previous month, far lower than the monthly average of 2.5 million tons imported in the second quarter. Import volume level. The monthly diesel gap reached more than 2 million tons.
Correspondingly, since April, the resources of the Chinese diesel market have gradually become tense. After the earthquake, and even after the launch of the “three summers,†the situation is even more severe. The phenomenon of limited supply of diesel oil is relatively common. In some areas, time limits and quantity restrictions are imposed on refueling. For example, local regulations can only be refueled in the morning or in the afternoon, and the daily fixed sales volume will stop refueling. In some places, only 100 or 200 yuan can be added at a time.
In May, driven by the international oil prices, the Chinese oil market set off another wave of rising prices. Diesel prices have risen. Rapid growth has been observed in North China, East China, and China. The local area has gained more than 500 yuan per ton in one week. According to the Oriental Oil and Gas Network's monitoring of the price data of 20 municipal social units No. 0 diesel prices, as of May 30, the actual wholesale price of diesel in China was 7564 yuan/ton, which was 722 yuan/ton higher than that in early May. The average retail price is 1414 yuan/ton, which is much higher than the national price of diesel oil in November last year.
2. Guaranteeing the use of oil in the disaster-hit areas and the start of “three summers†have intensified the high price of diesel fuel. The situation of tight diesel oil and high prices in the current round has already appeared before the Wenchuan earthquake, and after the earthquake, two major groups have emerged. It has mobilized nearly 500,000 tons of refined oil to increase supplies to Sichuan, Hunan, Hubei, Shaanxi, and other places to transfer refined oil to Sichuan several times in order to ensure the local rescue and relief work; after that, the “Sanxia†agricultural oil peak has arrived and it is estimated that During the summer season, a total of 5 million tons of agricultural diesel oil was needed, making the situation of tight diesel oil prices soaring.
The recent international oil prices have always been at a high level, resulting in a high refining cost for Chinese refineries. Some local refineries have withdrawn from operation, and start-up refineries have also maintained a low operating rate, and the shortage of diesel resources cannot be filled. According to a recent survey conducted by the Guangdong Provincial Economic and Trade Commission, Guangdong's refining companies have to lose 4,000 yuan for each ton of oil they make. Although the state gave some compensation, it still has to lose 2000-3000 yuan. In the case of “sell more losses,†the market for refined oil resources will inevitably drop.
Third, the increase in oil prices will help alleviate the “three summers,†the tight supply of diesel fuel June 20th, increasing the price of refined products will help refiners reduce losses and increase supply of refined oil products; on the other hand, can promote “false†consumer demand down The situation of tight market supply has gradually improved.
According to Zhong Jian, deputy general manager of Dongfang Oil and Gas Network, in May, the mutual supply of PetroChina and Sinopec was not based on the international oil price as it used to, but was reduced to 6,400 yuan per ton; during the same period, the average price of crude oil imported by Sinopec was 7300 yuan per ton. -7400 yuan. After the domestic gasoline and diesel prices were raised, the petrol supply price of petrochemical refineries was 1,000 yuan for gasoline and 600-800 yuan for diesel; the import price of petrol for some petrochemical refineries was basically the same, and diesel was also upside down 200-400. yuan. Since Sinopec purchased half of its crude oil from PetroChina, half of it relied on imports, and it would reach a break-even point when the refinery's differential price reached 500-700 yuan per ton. As a whole, after the price adjustment, the refinery can basically reach the break-even point, or have a slight loss. In the past, the situation of significant losses of oil refineries ended, which is beneficial to the production and supply of domestic refined oil.
In addition, after the increase in oil prices, "false" consumer demand will fall, and the tight supply situation in the retail market will gradually ease.
It is reported that due to petrol prices of one-off even slightly upside down, and diesel upside down rate is as high as 1400-1500 yuan, the recent social gas station operators generally stopped the operation of gasoline and diesel. In order to reduce the amount of losses, PetroChina and Sinopec also reduced diesel retail sales and expanded direct sales. After the price of gasoline and diesel oil is raised, the price difference between gasoline and diesel can reach more than 800 yuan. Private gas stations can fully resume the operation of gasoline. Although the wholesale and retail diesel upside down is still in the range of 400-500 yuan, the extent of upside down has been greatly reduced, at least to enable the current two major groups Direct sales users return to the gas station, and the retail volume of diesel will gradually increase. If the international oil price does not continue to rise sharply in the near future and does not trigger new price adjustments, domestic retail prices of petrol and diesel will gradually recover within a week. The actual wholesale price will gradually decline, diesel oil wholesale and retail prices will gradually shrink, and oil product supply and demand will become tight. Gradually ease the situation.
Sun Zhengcai, Minister of Agriculture, said on the 22nd that the country’s wheat harvest has basically ended. As of June 21st, the country had harvested 314 million mu of wheat, which is more than 91% of the summer harvested wheat area. Among them, 258 million mu of aircraft species and 82.1% of the aircraft have been harvested. . At present, the summer-sowing operation has begun. Improvements in the tight supply of diesel fuel throughout the country will greatly ease the tense situation in the oil production of agricultural production machinery during the “three summers†period, meet the adequate and timely supply of summer sowing oil, and ensure the summer sowing work. The smooth progress and harvest of agricultural yields.
Upgrading refined oil prices will help guarantee the supply of "Sanxia" diesel oil
On the evening of June 19, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that since June 20th, the price of gasoline and diesel will have been increased by 1,000 yuan per ton, and the price of aviation kerosene will have increased by 1,500 yuan per ton. The current increase in refined oil prices can promptly ease the operating difficulties of refinery companies and increase the supply of oil products in the market. On the other hand, it can effectively release the price adjustment expectations, prompting “false†consumer demand to fall, and the tight market supply situation will gradually improve. The half of the work in the "three summers" will greatly ease the tense situation of the "three summers" agricultural machinery and ensure a bumper agricultural output this year.