The domestic mixed technical route schools, P2 and PS will be the main force in the future

At present, the world's major auto manufacturers have taken new energy vehicles as a crucial link in their respective development strategies, and gradually increased their global presence. The following figure shows that IHS statistics show that internal combustion engine vehicles will still dominate the market in the next 5-10 years. However, with the pressure of energy saving and emission reduction and the diversification of consumer demand, new energy vehicles will show a leap-forward development, especially for hybrid vehicles. The current 3 million, which has grown to 18 million in 2023.

There are many hybrid models on the market today, such as the Toyota Prius, LaCrosse/Maribe XL Hybrid, Cadillac CT6 PHEV, Golf GTE, Audi A3 e-tron, BMW530Le, Volvo S60L Plug-in, BYD Qin, BYD Tang et al. However, although these are referred to as hybrid vehicles, there are significant differences in the technical architecture, which also outlines today's factional hybrid technology roadmap. Especially in the Chinese market where the development of new energy is relatively rapid, it is even more inclusive. The various technological routes have shown remarkable powers across the sea.

At present, according to the structure of the electrified components and the location of the motor, the industry divides the mixed technology route into the following combinations: P0, P1, P2, P3, P4, PS, and so on. As shown below:

What is the difference between the current major technical routes? What is the current application and development? With the rapid development of new energy vehicles, who will become the master? The following will be analyzed one by one!

Mixed technology martial arts hegemony P2 and PS prospects are promising

From the perspective of the above technical route analysis, each technology has its own existing value and advantages. However, with the rapid advancement and development of new energy vehicles, the mainstream technology trend is gradually presented during this “martial arts hegemony” process. “In the actual supporting process with the OEM, we found that different from the electric vehicle market, whether the joint venture brand in China or in the domestic market,” said Xu Wei, the double clutch engineering manager of BorgWarner Transmission Systems, a leading automotive power transmission supplier. The self-owned brands have their own solutions for the development of hybrid cars, and there is no dominating and completely consistent hybrid solution, but in terms of market application trends, the P0/P2/PS three technologies will dominate the market. , others are relatively minor."

According to statistical analysis by an authoritative consulting agency, P0 currently has an overall market share of 800,000 and may reach 9.9 million in the future. “The product has no technical barriers, relatively low cost for relatively high transformation costs, and has a certain fuel-saving effect. It is a transitional product that has a comparative advantage at this stage and will maintain rapid growth in the near future,” said Xu Wei.

The PS has the highest share in the existing hybrid technology, and the mainstream view in the industry also believes that PS is the best new energy electric drive technology, but due to the patent application of GM and Toyota, many companies will develop PS technology. Corresponding circumvention is done to achieve the functions of the technology through other means, such as the Roewe 550. It is understood that this technology is currently applied more in Japan and North America, currently has a market share of 1.7 million and will double in five years.

Looking at P2 again, the current share of the technology is not as much as it is currently, but the future growth potential cannot be overlooked. “P2 is now blooming everywhere. Whether it is the European, American, Korean or Japanese customers, it is currently used. Now we And some independent brands are also cooperating in the development of this technology.” Xu Wei said, “This technical advantage is obvious. There is no need to make major changes in the transmission, and the current transmission production line does not need to be adjusted, just through The addition of an electric drive coupling system between the engine and the transmission can realize the hybrid function, which not only shortens the development cycle, but also reduces the investment cost and risk. Under the dual pressure of energy conservation, emission reduction and cost, this solution can be adopted. Boogie Warner has already started research and development work with some domestic car companies in this regard.

Factions Diverse in Demand and Suppliers Face Extreme Challenges

Hybrid development is more complex, involving not only traditional machinery such as engines and gearboxes, but also motors and related modules in new energy sources. This requires suppliers to have comprehensive global capabilities. It is best to understand both the machine and the electricity. . In addition, as mentioned above, different technical factions have different system architectures and even different technological developments. Different vehicle companies also have different developments. This also imposes higher requirements on suppliers' customization and system supply capabilities. Coupled with the constraints of costs and development time, technology and product support and collaborators will face new limits in this market.

“Indeed, the current customer demand is very complicated. As a system supplier, we will also receive many technical challenges while facing the opportunities brought by the market.” Xu Wei told reporters, “But what is good is that we are an electromechanical one Suppliers, as well as key components involved in hybrid power such as motors, motor controllers, clutch modules, solenoid valves, clutch friction linings, etc. We all have related products that can not only provide systematic integrated hybrid modules, but also according to the needs of enterprises. Provide a single product part."

Taking P2 as an example, Xu Wei pointed out that currently P2 has two modes, horizontal and vertical, and the vertical position is relatively simple and there is not much space for restrictions. However, tapping is more troublesome, and it is more difficult to narrow the hybrid system without sacrificing the original architecture. For this reason, BorgWarner has developed a very compact three-clutch P2 hybrid module for the dual-clutch automatic transmission, which achieves space-saving requirements. At present, this method is also the leading domestic one.

To sum up, no matter whether it is a car manufacturer or a parts supplier, in addition to the opportunities brought by the market in the hybrid technology field, it also faces the route selection and multiple technical challenges. In addition, in China, compared with the United States, Japan and other countries, hybrid vehicle sales are still low. Of course, judging from policies such as the “Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap” and double-point management measures that the country has continuously released, the prospects for hybrid power are gradually improving, and existing flourishing and factionalism will further promote its development. What kind of technology will be placed on the schedule and become the leader of the system and leave it to the market to test!