The corn machine market is weak and innovation is imperative

The corn machine market is weak and innovation is imperative

Regarding the reasons for the weakness of the domestic corn machine market in the first half of the year, after exchanges and analysis with dealers, first-line marketers and some agricultural operators, we all agree with the following points:

The first is the suppression of the sharp fall in corn purchase prices. Last year, the global corn market was seriously overcapacity, and the international corn purchase and sales prices fell sharply, which directly led to the domestic corn purchase price encountering Waterloo. In addition, the policy of low protection price purchases adopted by the government in previous years has not been put in place, which has shaken the farmers' basic confidence in expanding corn planting area or continuing to plant corn in the future. Moreover, the current state is implementing the reform of the supply side, further adjusting and optimizing the agricultural industrial policy, and clearly proposing the “grain reforming” project implemented in five years. This year, the national corn planting area will be reduced by at least 10 million mu, which can be foreseen. It is a foregone conclusion that the market demand for corn harvesters has shrunk dramatically during the year.

Second is the impact of switching standards. 2016 is the year when China's agricultural equipment industry began to implement the national three emission standards. Although it is affected by related products such as tractors and wheat-rice harvesters, the impact on the corn harvester industry is even greater. This is because the corn harvester, as a rising star, has just entered the market development period. The market volume was originally small, but last year the whole industry had a backlog of more than 20,000 Taiwanese models that could not be sold. The impact was better than tractors and wheat. The machine is much bigger. At present, the more than 20,000 old models of the second country have become a nightmare for most companies in the industry, and destocking has become their "political task" this year. The large-scale low-price dumping measures launched by various enterprises in an eagerness to “de-stock” further activate the wait-and-see mood of users buying and not buying.

The third is the influence of some misleading propaganda during the process of switching from the country to the second country. In the process of the country's second promotion to the country, some enterprises have inadvertently instilled into the consumers that the new models of the country have not yet received the test of large-scale and high-intensity of the market for their own “de-stocking” needs. The misleading concept has caused consumers to lack awareness and confidence in the new models of the country. Therefore, they have waited for a wait-and-see attitude, which has led to the lack of interest in the new products of the country. The production and sales companies on the supply side are also smart. Clever mistakes, the consequences of their own planting themselves.

In addition, too much subsidy funding is also one of the main factors leading to the downturn in the corn harvester market this year. In the case of serious overdrafts and subsidies in most areas, the marketing team of each enterprise must first consider the issue of subsidy funds. In the sequence of arranging the use of funds, the first consideration is how to solve the inventory of the two old models in the original country. The "de-stocking" issue. Because if you can't get the "last bus" of this year's subsidy funds, a large number of China's second machine inventory will really become a "heart disease" that they can never erase. Due to huge inventory pressure, or due to careful consideration, many companies in the industry either have no time to consider new product development, or dare not easily arrange new production plans, thus resulting in intermittent new products on the market. blank. This situation is reflected in the market, but the old models are full of cheap but few people, but the users who have real needs for the new models continue to wait and see because they can not pick their favorite new products. In vain, the market is full of good spring.

Based on the above situation, the author carefully analyzed that although the corn harvester market in the first half of this year was extremely depressed, it could not rashly conclude the annual market. The author predicts that with the gradual departure of the current season before the summer harvest and the normalization of the order of purchase subsidies, the corn harvester market in China will usher in a climax of purchases in the second half of the year. However, as far as the corn harvester industry is concerned, there will be a major industry shock and “shuffle” in the future. Moreover, the innovation drive will become the main development line of the industry in the future. China's corn harvester industry may embark on the transformation and upgrading. the road.

From the product demand side analysis, the market rigid demand factor is still there. Despite the sharp fall in corn purchase prices last year, the enthusiasm of farmers to grow corn crops has diminished. However, there is not much room for selection of suitable crops in the Huanghuaihai area, which is the main producing area of ​​corn. It is a reality that wheat is grown in summer. In autumn, only corn, soybean, cotton and other crops are suitable. If you choose to replant cotton, the same is true. In the face of price factors, if you choose to grow soybeans, and because of their production and price limits, the benefits are far less than corn. Therefore, continuing to grow corn will still be a helpless choice for farmers in most regions. Even considering the adjustment factors of the national “grain-to-feed” project and other planting structures, the impact is almost negligible compared to the oversized volume of more than 1 billion mu in the country. Moreover, as far as the current corn machine yield in China is concerned, as of 2015, the national corn harvest mechanization rate is 63%, while the wheat machine yield has reached 95%, and the rice machine yield is also close to 80%. The machine yield of corn is a short-board among the three major food crops. It must be reached by the Ministry of Agriculture's "Opinions on the mechanization of the main crop production process". "To achieve 2020, the comprehensive mechanization level of crop cultivation in the country will reach 68%. Above, the target tasks of the three major food crops for comprehensive mechanization of more than 80%, there is still a lot of room for improvement. These rigid demand are the main factors supporting the stabilization of the domestic corn machine market.

From the perspective of market supply, there is still a gap in the effective supply of the market. As mentioned above, based on the mistrust of the performance and price of the new products of the third country based on the supply and demand sides (ie, the manufacturer and the corn machine user), both parties will take extra care in accepting the new three models. The attitude, this will determine whether the user's choice of the purchase of the country's three products or the production capacity of the country's three products, will not take a big step. Judging from the supply situation of the engine manufacturers upstream of the corn harvester enterprises, the main engine factory in the industry has ordered more than one hundred engines in the country. The remaining manufacturers are mostly less than one hundred or even few, and most of them are used for early stage adaptation. Sexual experiments, for the mass market, there are countless people in mind. According to this, it is estimated that the total output of the new national three products in the industry will not exceed 20,000 units. According to the calculation of industry institutions, in the first half of this year, the total number of new machines (motivations) of the national second engine produced by the enterprises in the whole industry using the pre-switching inventory was less than 10,000, plus the remaining 20,000 units before the year. In the old and second country stocks, the effective supply in the market is less than 50,000 units. Compared with the total market capacity of 65,000 units in the normal year, there is still a gap of at least 15,000 units, accounting for 23.08 of the demand. %. According to this, in the second half of this year, the domestic corn harvester market may turn from slow-moving sales, and there may even be structural out-of-stocks in the local market. In particular, the 2016 new National Type II products with less than 10,000 units in the whole industry are very likely to appear. The rush of a machine is hard to find.

From the analysis of the industrial development pattern, industry reshuffle is inevitable. At present, the big problem in China's corn harvester industry is overcapacity. The big worry is that innovation is insufficient. The production process is easy to trigger low-cost dumping in the market, and the lack of innovation is the main culprit in the industry's homogenization competition; the outcome of low-cost dumping and homogenization competition must be the common misfortune of the whole industry. This "de-stocking" phenomenon is the result of the industry's homogenization competition. It is only the intersection of the country's second-level national three and the shortage of subsidy funds, which further prompted it to detonate in advance. Under this double blow, those radical companies that are keen on pursuing industry potential and market share, blindly expanding their production capacity, relying on so-called extensional development to relax or even neglect market risk management, have encountered such situations. The sudden change in the market is bound to push the enterprise to the forefront. A large number of products can not be sold out and accumulated in the warehouse, not only carrying heavy financial burdens, but also carrying heavy losses, and may even suffer huge economic losses, so that enterprises directly face the risk of capital chain breakage, at this time has been unable to carry out new The investment and development of products and new businesses will not be able to plan and cultivate the future development capabilities of the company. And those companies with far-sightedness always focus on the cultivation and cultivation of the internal strength of the enterprise, do not blindly follow the trend and pursue the occupation rate unilaterally; adhere to the path of intensive development and market demand; adhere to innovation drive and technology, closely around Differentiated competition, emphasis on new technologies, new processes and new product research and development, gradually gathered the potential and advantages of the company's subsequent development. Therefore, they can not only calmly face and easily pass the current industry reshuffle crisis, but also very likely to get a quick start advantage, thus becoming the direct beneficiary of the industry reshuffle.

From the perspective of the future development of the industry, innovation drive is imperative. At present, all industries are practicing supply-side structural reforms. This overlap between the two-factory emission standard switching and the shortage of subsidy funds has further pushed the structural reform of the corn machine industry into an imperative situation. As far as the content of the supply-side reform is concerned, the corn machine industry is not only a problem of “de-capacity” and “de-stocking”, but also a more urgent and urgent need to solve such deep-seated problems as insufficient innovation. To continue to develop steadily in the corn harvester industry, we must first focus on the adjustment of industrial structure and product organization, and focus on technological innovation, product development and “de-homogenization”. We must adhere to market-oriented and user-oriented needs. Conduct product research and development in the field to provide users with more good products that are easy to use and use. In this regard, there are a lot of hard and meticulous work waiting for us to do. For example, in order to break through the “last mile” of the whole mechanized operation of corn production, the grain harvesting technology needs to move toward maturity; according to the industrial development requirements of the national “grain reforming project”, accelerate the development of corn ear stems and straw baling integration. Composite work machines are also the direction of future development. Therefore, I hope that the enterprises in the industry can understand the pain after the "de-stocking" pain, seriously reflect on it, thoroughly learn from the painful suffering of this "de-stocking", and completely quit the impetuous style and greed from the management thought. To seek the traditional thinking of the big, to abandon the development model of extensive and homogenous competition, to be market-oriented, to adhere to science and technology, to drive innovation, and to unswervingly take the road of differentiation, sustainability and innovation. Only in this way, can the company keep its youthful vitality and let the wind and the rain hit, I walked in the air. In this way, it is a blessing for the company's own steady development and even the optimization and upgrading of the entire corn machine industry.

(Original title: Corn harvester industry entered the "shuffle" period, the transformation and upgrading is at the time)