Polypropylene market will rise short-term or will adjust

In March, affected by the turmoil in Libya, international oil prices climbed and broke the one hundred yuan mark for the first time since the financial crisis of 2008. As of March 7, WTI rose to a 29-month high of 105.44 US dollars/barrel. . The soaring crude oil pushed up the cost of commodities and led the polypropylene market to launch a wave of rising offensives. As of March 9, the mainstream of PP domestically produced T30S drawing materials in East China rose to 12700-12750 yuan/ton, which was higher than the prices at the end of February. 500-600 yuan / ton, North China, South China also had 400-500 yuan / ton gains. In addition, the recent shutdown and overhaul of some PP units in China also played a role in relieving supply pressure.

From the perspective of transactions, due to the increase in market sentiment at the beginning of the month, the enthusiasm of downstream goods received was greatly increased. All of them were stocked and the market transactions were in good condition. However, after nearly two weeks, the prices of raw materials continued to rise after the downstream companies had not received new orders. The cost pressures increased, the terminal's resistance to high-priced raw materials rose, purchasing enthusiasm greatly reduced, and began to wait and see digestion of inventory-based, so the market also reflects the phenomenon of weak transactions.

From the trader's mentality, the enthusiasm of the businessmen for the market's speculation is lower than in previous years, especially when the crude oil prices rose so sharply that the current round of speculation was mild. The author believes that there are two main reasons. On the one hand, domestic production capacity has expanded significantly in recent years, and the supply of resources on the market has shifted from supply-less than demand to over-supply. In particular, the phenomenon of oversupply of general-purpose materials has become prominent, although in times of rising prices, sometimes Resources will appear difficult to find, but businesses are still worried about social stocks. Most traders are afraid to sell a lot of goods. On the other hand, they mainly come from the constraints of national policies. The policy of curbing inflation and stabilizing prices is this year's commodity market. A sharp sword hung over the top, once the market is hot, the price will rise sharply, and the country will inevitably shake the sword. As a result, speculators' enthusiasm for speculation will also be significantly reduced. In addition, monetary policy tightening will also tighten the capital chain of enterprises. Turnaround, we had to speed up the import and export cycle, so the situation of holding up the goods was somewhat inhibited.

Taken together, the current price of oil has risen to a relatively high level, and the trend of crude oil in the latter period still needs to focus on changes in the Libyan situation. Once the situation moderates, oil prices will pull back; out of this concern, traders’ confidence in the market outlook continues to rise. Declined and began to increase shipments to lock in profits. If there is no obvious positive stimulus, it is expected that the short-term market will continue to rise or will be closed. Under the support of cost, the market is expected to adjust slightly. Source: Treasure Island

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