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Potential market demand is huge 95% of the consumption composition of ethylene glycol in China is used for the production of polyester, and about 5% for the production of antifreeze, adhesives, paint solvents, cold lubricants, surfactants, polyester polyols and so on. Among them, in 2004 China's polyester production was 11.7 million tons, and total consumption of ethylene glycol was approximately 4.1 million tons; in antifreeze and other aspects (including the production of glyoxal, oxalic acid, alkyd resin, polyethylene glycol, Unsaturated polyester, etc.) The amount of ethylene glycol consumed was approximately 214,000 tons.
It is predicted that in 2008 China's polyester production will reach 17.3 million tons, according to polyester unit consumption of 0.34 tons / ton, the need for ethylene glycol 5.88 million tons; 2010 polyester output 19 million tons, need glycol 646 Ten thousand tons. Together with 5% of demand for antifreeze, the total domestic demand for ethylene glycol in 2008 is estimated at 6.17 million tons, and about 6.77 million tons in 2010.
In 1995, China's ethylene glycol import volume was only 205,400 tons. In 2000, the import volume exceeded 1 million tons to 1,049,700 tons. In 2004, the import volume reached 3.391 million tons. Since 2001, when China became the world’s largest importer of ethylene glycol, China’s trade in ethylene glycol accounted for approximately 53.5% of world trade in 2004.
Accelerating the pace of industrial investment Since the 1990s, the ethylene oxide/ethylene glycol industry in China has entered a new period of development. By 2004, there were 11 sets of ethylene oxide/ethylene glycol production plants in China and the production capacity of ethylene glycol. It reached 1.078 million tons and its output reached 950 thousand tons.
In order to meet the needs of the domestic ethylene glycol downstream product market, in the future, China will also complete the construction and expansion of a batch of ethylene glycol projects: the 300,000-ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Nanjing Yangba Integrated Works in 2005 and Zhonghai - The 320,000 tons/year ethylene glycol production plant built by Shell Petrochemical Company was put into production one after another; in 2006, the new 380,000-ton/year ethylene glycol production plant of Shanghai Petrochemical Company will be put into operation; Liaoyang Chemical Fiber is in the process of implementing the expansion and it is planned to produce ethylene glycol. The capacity is increased from 60,000 tons/year to 200,000 tons/year, and it is expected to start production in 2006; Yangzi Petrochemical will also implement the transformation, and the ethylene glycol production capacity will reach 370,000 tons/year after the transformation. In addition, during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, some large-scale ethylene plants for ethylene glycol were also planned, such as 450,000 tons/year for Tianjin Lianhua Chemical Co., Ltd., 650,000 tons/year for Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Company, and 350,000 tons/year for Sichuan Ethylene. , Dalian Shide 600,000 tons / year and so on. It is expected that in 2010 China's ethylene glycol production capacity will reach 4.367 million tons.
It can be said that ethylene glycol is one of the most active petrochemical intermediate materials in the market in the past two years. In the next few years, China's ethylene glycol market will become a big stage for foreign product competition. With the rise of large-scale installations in the Middle East and Malaysia, new production capacity is expected to find a way out in the Chinese market, and competition will become increasingly fierce.
Three strategic development spaces Since most of the ethylene glycol production processes in China use the naphtha process route, ethylene oxide is used for direct water production. Therefore, the product structure is single, and there is a large gap between the energy consumption and material consumption and the international advanced level. The ethylene oxide catalytic hydration can save energy and reduce production costs; the ethylene carbonate method can make full use of the CO2 resources produced by ethylene oxidation, representing the direction of the development of ethylene glycol production today, and is very attractive. Therefore, in addition to constantly improving existing technologies, China should actively respond to the development trend of world production technology and carry out research and development work on new production methods such as ethylene oxide catalytic hydration and ethylene carbonate ester methods to improve China’s Alcohol overall production technology level. In view of the current situation of China's oil resources shortage, we should take full advantage of the relative abundance of China's coal and natural gas resources, strengthen the technological development of the direct production of ethylene glycol from syngas, and open up new production routes.
In addition, about 95% of ethylene glycol in China is used for the production of polyester, and the downstream consumption field is very simple. As China's downstream textile industry frequently encounters trade frictions, if polyester production is hindered, it will surely cause a fatal blow to the domestic ethylene glycol industry. Some ethylene glycol manufacturers in the United States, Western Europe, and Japan have begun work on market development of ethylene oxide derivatives. China should also follow the example of Europe and the United States, increase the use of ethylene glycol in other areas of application development, and gradually change the use of a single situation in order to resolve future market risks.
Despite the large gap in the ethylene glycol market in China, the domestic market will be impacted by a large number of cheap products produced by the ethane method in the Middle East and squeezed by Taiwan and Malaysian companies in China. Therefore, it is recommended that Chinese investors implement the strategy of going global and cooperate with multinational corporations, especially the petrochemical multinational corporations in the Middle East, in order to establish a petrochemical joint venture in the Persian Gulf region and establish a transnational industry portfolio for the industrial chain to form a batch The internationally competitive multinational companies have achieved a broader development space for the ethylene glycol industry in China by integrating into the global industrial division of labor system.
Open up the production process route to change the use of a single situation to establish a multinational industrial portfolio development of ethylene glycol industry should be "three" drive
In recent years, due to strong demand from the polyester industry, the domestic market has maintained a rapid growth momentum in demand for ethylene glycol. According to statistics, in 1995, China's apparent consumption of ethylene glycol was 657,000 tons, compared with 4.314 million tons in 2004, which surpassed the United States as the world's largest consumer of ethylene glycol. However, during the period, the growth rate of domestic ethylene glycol production capacity was slow. The self-sufficiency rate has dropped from 70% in 1995 to 22% in 2004, and the industrial development needs to be accelerated.