Natural rubber hits new high tire companies for two years

By the positive impact of the downstream economic data and strong car sales at home and abroad, Shanghai rubber futures September 2 doing well, hit a two-year intraday high. According to industry insiders, since inventory is at historically low levels and automobile production and sales are entering the peak season, natural rubber or the market outlook will maintain its upward momentum. The rise in rubber prices will cause tire companies to face cost pressures.

Car consumption rose sharply

Shanghai Tianjiao 1101 main contract opened higher and higher, continued to hit the rebound highs in the session, 1101 contract opened at 25,820 yuan / ton, intraday probe to 26,245 yuan / ton, refresh the new highs in two years, and finally closed at 26220 RMB/ton, up 1.85% from the previous trading day. On the external disk, as of the press release, Japan Rubber offered 300.02 yen, up 1.15%.

Many people in the industry believe that the strong production and sales of downstream cars have boosted the price of natural rubber. The reporter learned that in August, China’s auto market reversed, with auto sales increasing by 15% month-on-month and gaining 55% year-on-year, entering the sales season ahead of schedule.

Dong Jing Futures Analyst He Jing said that the rise in natural rubber on the 2nd was due to the market's good expectations for auto consumption. In August, auto consumption had a rebound trend, and inventory consumption was relatively fast. The sales volume may reach 16 million units throughout the year. In addition, the good performance of the domestic PMI and the US ISM index also supported the rise of natural rubber. Good industrial manufacturing data will drive the rise of industrial products.

“Overall, this year's downstream demand growth is much faster than the increase in rubber production. In August, automobile production and sales entered the peak season in advance. Domestic and foreign natural rubber production did not keep pace with the growth of downstream companies, and the funds promoted the strong strength of Hujiao. Dongxing Futures analyst Liu Tao told reporters.

Late natural rubber or will remain strong

For the future market, whether natural rubber can maintain the upward trend, it is necessary to pay attention to the actual inventory and import volume of domestic natural rubber. "After all, the small stocks on the China's Shanghai Stock Exchange do not mean that there is no stock in the market and that there are stocks in the market. It is very dangerous and it will lead to a drop at any time," the industry source told reporters. In addition, we must also pay attention to whether there is a significant rebound in car sales.

Analyst Liu Tao believes that from the perspective of supply and demand, the rubber market outlook can remain strong. "According to the seasonality of automobile production and sales, the third and fourth quarters are peak seasons, and tire production may increase further. Japan's natural rubber imports will also increase further. Therefore, from the current point of view, natural rubber is in short supply."

East Asian futures analyst Hu Yangjie also said that the overall outlook for natural rubber, because the current traders are reluctant to ship, the stock exchange history is low.

Standing on the perspective of the industry chain, many bullish analysts believe that rising natural rubber prices have narrowed the profit margins of downstream tire companies, but tire companies are still profitable, so they are increasing their production. Therefore, the rubber market outlook will continue to strengthen.

The bearish analysts said that the current price of natural rubber has made the cost of tire manufacturers high, companies need to increase tire prices to ensure profits, so that the domestic cost advantage is reduced, and exports will be more difficult. Although the economic situation has improved, the excessively high prices of bulk commodities will affect the economic recovery. Therefore, the price of natural rubber is expected to reach its peak.

Tire companies face cost pressures

The rise in the price of natural rubber has made the downstream auto industry, especially the tire industry, face greater cost pressures. Industry sources said that natural rubber prices will indeed increase tire business costs. Analyst He Jing stated that under the influence of natural rubber prices, tire companies will be worse and profit expectations may decline.

While analyst Liu Tao believes that although tire companies will increase costs due to the rise of natural rubber, but tire consumption is also rising downstream, and now the tire demand is at the highest level in history, the spot price of natural rubber can still be accepted by companies, and thus tire companies The profits do not necessarily fall due to rising costs.

"Although the tire companies have increased their costs, they may also be able to transmit cost pressures due to market speculation and increase their profitability," said Chen Junhao, an East Asia futures analyst. The reporter noticed that tire listed companies have performed well in the A-share market recently, such as double-money shares [19.56 2.30%] and Aeolus shares [12.48 -0.16%]. On the 2nd, Shuangqian shares rose 5%, Fengshen shares rose 2.21%.