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The scale of China's auto production and sales has ranked first in the world for five consecutive years, but it is still not a member of the "1958 Agreement." There is no industry rule to formulate the right to speak. The self-owned automobile industry brand is weak and is still in a difficult stage of climbing. However, the global cold weather of urbanization and aging has fallen. At the time of the cold and warm trade, how should the large, weak and scattered Chinese auto industry grasp the future of the industry? At the recent "2014 China Auto Forum," international counterparts offered advice and suggestions for the development of the domestic auto industry.
The early conclusion of the "1958 Agreement," non-member member of the World Association of World Car Organizations, Chairman Patrick Blain, said that China's auto production has accounted for more than one-quarter of the global automotive market, making it a truly major player in the global automotive industry. However, how China should interact with the global automotive market is still a new issue to be answered.
Patrick B lain stated that China already has the ambition of designing and manufacturing high quality advanced products, and believes that Chinese manufacturers will become more active in the global market. However, he also suggested that Chinese vehicle manufacturers have not actively participated in the competition in all foreign markets. He called on China to be more involved in the harmonization of world automotive technology regulations.
He said that the coordination of automotive technology regulations has always been an important goal of all governments. The "1958 Agreement" created a universal technical regulation that is acceptable to all countries and has been recognized by various governments. "It is time for China to join the '1958 Agreement'." He is convinced that this is not only in the interest of China as a world auto exporter, but also in line with China's leading position and responsibility in the global automotive market.
Pay close attention to the "two scoops of cold water" in the global automotive industry in advance
John B. Moavenzadeh, a senior director of the World Economic Forum’s US division, said that at present, there are too many wastes for people to travel. “On average 96% of Americans' cars are parked in the parking lot of offices or homes and shopping centers. This is a huge waste. Cars are used only for 3% of the time, and the average weight of each car exceeds that of a car. With nine times the weight of these passengers, how can people achieve sustainable development by using such expensive energy to drive a car instead of a ride?â€
John B. Moavenzah believes that the global automotive industry is on the verge of change and that the changes that will occur in the next decade will be much deeper than in the past 100 years. The next two major factors will change the automobile industry, namely urbanization and aging.
In 2050, the United Nations estimates that about two-thirds of the population lives in cities. Almost all countries in the world are gradually moving towards an ageing population. At present, 12% of the world's population has exceeded 60 years old, and by 2050 this figure will rise to 21%.
Aging will revolutionize the mobility of vehicles. In 2011, the University of Michigan conducted a survey. Young people have a significantly lower driver's license compared to 1983, especially for young people in their twenties. The proportion of elderly people who have a driver's license is increasing, and more and more people are over 70 years old. Japan and Germany have also seen this trend.
Traffic congestion in most cities is getting worse, especially in developing countries. Congestion is changing the way people travel. Everyone can ride together, similar to renting a car. In 2012, more than 1 million people in the United States and Canada already participated in a common rider organization. The European common rider organization is 700,000 people. Car renters can pick up cars from anywhere in a city and deliver them to their destination.
"From now on, our CEO and industry leaders will discuss the transformation of motor vehicles, not only the manufacture of motor vehicles, but also the provision of motor vehicle services." JohnB.Movazandeh said.
Impressed by the feelings of the South Korean experience and India's gap in how to establish and cultivate automotive brands, the Korea Automotive Industry Association Secretary General T ae-N yneK im introduced the experience of the Korean automotive industry.
He said that compared with the United States, Japan, and Germany, the development history of the Korean automotive industry is not long, and it is less than 50 years. However, there are already 9 million Korean cars. South Korea also encountered many difficulties and challenges in its development. Initially, the Korean government formulated a policy, mainly to develop its own domestic parts and components manufacturing, and to coordinate the industry, to have the current level of Korean cars.
In addition, from the enterprise level, we must also have a sense of self-discipline. Private enterprises in this area have played a very important role. They have good self-management, rapid investment decisions, and rapid investment in the automotive industry can improve efficiency and resources.
He also pointed out that the automotive industry in South Korea and China has developed rapidly in the short term, but the development strategies of the two governments are not the same. The Korean government began as an independent development model. It first made the domestic market a good job and then opened up the international market. For China's local auto manufacturers, the scale of the industry is the most critical. China now has more than 200 automakers, but many of them have less than 10,000 vehicles annually, and they cannot achieve economies of scale. He suggested that it is very important for the Chinese government to make decisions to restructure the auto industry.
Patrick Blain, chairman of the World Automobile Organization, also stated that South Korea attaches great importance to vehicle quality issues and corporate image. For example, he said that in the past 20 years, South Korea’s Hyundai brand has had major quality problems in the United States, and it has almost destroyed the entire Korean automobile industry. To this end, they spent 10 years taking measures to deal with it. He pointed out that Chinese companies must go out of the country and must pay attention to quality. Once a quality problem occurs, it is almost a disaster.
Secretary of the Indian Automobile Industry Association secretary Sugato also stated the gap between the Chinese and Indian automotive industries. He said that the Indian automobile industry has done a lot of work in the past 15 to 20 years and the development is not very good. In terms of passenger cars, China currently owns 92 vehicles for 1,000 people and India has 18 vehicles for 1,000 people. The gap between China and India is relatively large. India is formulating a vision for the development of the automotive industry in 2025 and expects to have 10 million vehicles by 2020.
A nupP .Bandivadekar, head of the passenger vehicle project of the International Committee of Clean Transport International, who is fully prepared to meet the needs of new energy vehicles in the Asia-Pacific region, said that APEC economies account for 40% of the global population, which has been relatively stable over the past 10 years. The proportion of G D P in these Asian-Pacific economies is increasing. The total sales of motor vehicles include cars and trucks, and the proportion of global automobile sales in the Asia-Pacific economies is still rising. Less than 60% in 2005, 66% in 2012, 66% in 2013, and two-thirds of the world's vehicles were sold to Asia Pacific economies. The huge market and dense population have brought pressure and opportunities for the development of new energy vehicles in the Asia Pacific region.
Yoshihiro Yano, secretary general of the Japan Automobile Industry Association, said that Japan is now investing heavily in the development of next-generation new energy vehicles, such as hybrid cars, but it is not yet known which technology will last for a decade or two. After that will become the mainstream of the market.
However, for enterprises, they must take the initiative to develop various possible technologies. Japanese auto companies are all working hard to develop new energy vehicles, but the focus is not the same. There are hybrid, green diesel cars, there are other types of doing. The Japanese government introduced a plan around 2010 that will extend the penetration of new energy vehicles to 20% to 50% by 2020. To this end, the Japanese government has introduced some taxation measures to encourage companies to develop hybrid vehicles. "The combination of two companies and the government can achieve new energy development goals."