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Many steel trading companies expect the steel price performance in the first half of this year to be better than last year at the beginning of last year, but March and April are the traditional peak sales season for steel products. However, the continuous decline in steel prices has made steel trading companies miserable. Into the June, the steel price unexpectedly rose in the off-season of steel demand.
The data provided by relevant agencies shows that the average national price of rebar HRB400φ12mm was RMB 3,662/t yesterday, up RMB 10/t; that of HRB400φ25mm was RMB 3514/t, which was RMB 11/t higher; HPB 300φ6.5mm was RMB 3,552/h Ton, rose by 5 yuan/ton. In terms of futures, the 1401 Shanghai Thread main contract yesterday closed at 3,616 yuan/ton, up 1.74%.
“From the beginning of the year to now, the social deposit of rebar has dropped by more than 30%. In some regions, there have been signs of a shortage of specifications.†Luo Baihui, chief analyst of Jinmo Steel, said that raw material prices have also been rising since June. From 2890 yuan / ton rose to 3040 yuan / ton, iron ore Platts index also rose from 110 US dollars / ton to 120 US dollars / ton.
“This year's steel demand has been in a stable state. The demand for traditional consumer peak season is not very strong, but even if there are high-temperature rainy weather in some areas in June, the demand for steel products has not dropped significantly,†said Chen Deqiang, a brand marketing specialist in the Pearl River Delta.
It is reported that due to poor pre-order conditions, steel mills suffered serious losses, and some mills voluntarily reduced production. Recently, due to shortage of billet resources and rising prices, some small steel mills have been forced to reduce production again, which has caused a decline in the amount of steel products put on the market.
Chen Deqiang analyzed that recently, due to environmental protection and weather and other factors, nearly half of the cold rolling and threading production lines in the Tangshan area billing and rolling mill are suspending production for rectification, which is one of the reasons for the reduction in supply of the steel market.
The changes in spot inventory, demand and output support the price increase of steel products in this round, but the steel traders in the face of pulling up the market are very calm. Industry steel traders said that “This year’s market conditions are difficult to predict. The stocks that were sold earlier have given me a lot of losses. Now the cost of restocking funds is very high. The current safer approach is to follow the market rather than 'gamble' the market. ".
“In the process of economic reform and structural adjustment, the slowdown in the growth of steel demand has been unavoidable, and the reduction in inventories will hardly support the continued rise in steel prices.†Luo Baihui, chief analyst of Jinmo Steel, believes that destocking is a long-term In the process, even if there is inventory restocking after production cuts, the lack of strong recovery expectations will only be short-lived and limited. If there is a large turning point in steel prices in the second half of the year, it will be an accident.
