Gong Fangxiong, Director of China Market Research at JP Morgan Chase believes: CPI has fallen to 6%

"As the world's second-largest oil consumer, if China boldly increases gasoline prices and diesel prices by 20% and sends a signal to the international market, then international oil prices may fall." This is Gong Fangxiong, director of China market research for JP Morgan Chase. In a recent analysis, he stressed in an interview with reporters that if China really dares to increase its prices, international speculators will not have an excuse for speculation and the price of oil will fall.
Gong Fangxiong believes that the current situation in China is to subsidize Sinopec and PetroChina, which is equivalent to subsidizing the rich. The financial subsidy to Sinopec and PetroChina will be turned to subsidize people who need subsidies more rationally, mainly including farmers, urban low-income earners, and taxi drivers. Subsidies on oil consumption have made the price-leverage function useless, and car sales in China have not fallen as oil prices have risen. China's imports of high-end SUVs are now growing by more than 60%, and overall sales of large-displacement vehicles are above 30%. Gong Fangxiong does not want to see such a situation - rich people drive BMWs, Mercedes-Benz, SUVs, they get more subsidies, and this kind of subsidies benefit Hong Kong, and even overseas, international airlines to China to add oil Full back.
Gong Fangxiong said that if inflation gradually slows down in the coming months, it will provide an opportunity for the government to introduce reform measures for refined oil prices in the second half of the year. Gong Fangxiong explained that because food prices will continue to decline in the coming months, it may drive the CPI further down and may even fall back to 6% by August. When the CPI rises below 6%, it will be a good opportunity for reform of refined oil prices. If the CPI increase is still higher than 7%, the refined oil price reform plan is difficult to launch.
For the impact of high oil prices on inflation, Gong Fangxiong believes that there is no need to panic. He gave an example to illustrate that in October last year, China adjusted its oil price once, and raised it by 10%. The impact on inflation was only 0.4%, and now China's oil price is about 40% different from international oil prices, so the most impact on inflation is About 1.6%. Therefore, if the CPI falls back to 6%, even if it is fully integrated, the CPI will rise to 7.6% at most.
Forecasts from Morgan Stanley also show that a 10% increase in the domestic retail price of refined oil products will lead to a 0.3% to 0.4% increase in the generalized CPI inflation rate and a 0.5% to 0.6% increase in the producer price index (PPI) inflation rate. Percentage. If food inflation rate drops at the same time 1. O ~ 1.5 percentage points of live, the impact of rising prices of refined oil products on the expansion rate of CPI will be offset.
Gong Fangxiong also predicted that energy price adjustments will not be implemented in one step. There are priorities. It is reasonable to start diesel and gasoline first. Diesel, gasoline, and natural gas must be added. The next is electricity price. Electricity price adjustment can be partitioned and coastal areas can be added. , the rural areas, the mainland can not afford low capacity. After the first industrial residents, first coastal and rural areas can be implemented in slices. Gong Fangxiong thinks that this process is controllable, and the most important thing is that CPI food price inflation will come down and the supply will come up.

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