“This year, coal prices have generally declined, and since May, there has been an accelerated decline. At present, the ex-factory price of local raw coal in Yulin is only around 360 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the ex-factory price of blue carbon is less than 800 yuan, compared with April. In the middle of the year, it fell by 80 yuan and 150 yuan." On June 10, Wang Shengcai, chairman of the Shenmu Energy Development Co., Ltd. of Shaanxi Coal Chemical Group, said in an interview. The national coal price trend is similar to that of Yulin. Since March, the national coal price has been loosened. From April onwards, coal prices in the two main coal producing areas in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have been reduced first, and have gradually spread to Shaanxi, Ningxia, Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong, and Guizhou. In Inner Mongolia even limited production prices. “The inflection point of the coal market has already emerged, and the tightness of coal used in chemical industry is expected to change.†This has become the consensus of many experts. “The disorderly expansion under profiteering is the biggest incentive for coal overcapacity.†Zhao Shengmao, secretary general of the Shaanxi Coal Industry Association, and Li Dapeng, assistant to general manager of Shaanxi Yanchang (oil) Group, told reporters. They said that since the coal market stabilized and picked up in 2000, under the impetus of the rapid development of the national economy and the sustained and substantial increase in demand, China's coal market has come out of the bull market in which prices have risen steadily. At the 2011 high, coal prices have generally quadrupled compared with 2000. In some areas, the price of a few coal species has even skyrocketed by 6 to 8 times. The coal industry has become the most profitable industry during the "10th Five-Year Plan" and "11th Five-Year Plan" period. one. Driven by profits, the country's new pipeline expansion and expansion has rapidly increased, and coal production capacity continues to rise rapidly. In particular, the 4 trillion investment investment and coal resources integration actions from Shanxi to the whole country have set off a new round of expansion of coal, with a large number of large-scale specialties of 5 million tons/year, 10 million tons/year or even 30 million tons/year. Large-scale mines were quickly launched and were put into operation in the second half of last year until this year. According to rough statistics, if the mine projects currently under construction are all put into production, the national total coal production capacity will exceed 4 billion tons with a surplus of 17%, and the “12th Five-Year†coal production capacity control target will be achieved three years ahead of schedule. The excessive growth and surplus of coal production capacity has curbed the continued rise in coal prices. “The shrinking demand has aggravated the contradiction in the coal market oversupply, and suppressed the price downwards.†Suchitti, deputy general manager of Shaanxi Coal Chemical Industry Group and Su Heping, general manager of Shenmu Energy Development Corporation, analyzed this. They believe that due to the European debt crisis and the slow economic recovery in developed countries like the United States and Japan, global demand for energy and resource products has slowed down significantly since the second half of last year, and international coal prices have eased in the fourth quarter of last year. Overall decline. The decline in international coal prices not only depresses the rise in China's coal prices, but also stimulates a large increase in coal imports. This has caused the domestic coal market to shift from supply shortages to a basic balance between supply and demand, and restrained coal prices from rising further. A series of policies such as the restructuring of China's economy with a soft landing as the goal has significantly reduced the demand for coal and other resource products. The Chinese government unswervingly restrained the excessively rapid growth of the real estate market. As a result, the real estate, automobile and other industries continued to decline in growth rate or even negative growth, thereby reducing the demand for steel, cement, plastics, coatings, tires, thereby reducing the coke and raw coal The consumption. At the same time, the acceleration of the pace of elimination of backward production capacity and the increase in efforts to limit the development of “two high†industries have also reduced the demand for coal. In the case of overcapacity, continuous increase in production and imports of coal, the shrinking demand has led to oversupply in the coal market and a reversal of price trends. "This change in the coal market is expected to lower the cost of chemical companies and change the pattern of tight coal prices for chemical products," said Hu Haifeng, deputy inspector of the Shaanxi Provincial Office of Industry and Information Technology. First, the oversupply of the coal market will force the coal price center to move downwards as a whole. The prices of chemical coal including coking coal, long flame coal, and anthracite coal will also be turned down, which will ease the pressure on the cost of chemical companies. Second, with the popularization and application of new coal gasification technologies, the adaptability and selectivity of chemical enterprises to coal species will increase, and the pattern of anthracite coal chemical raw material coal market will be broken. According to market demand, it is expected that in the next 10 years, the proportion of bituminous coal and lignite in chemical raw coal will increase at an annual rate of over 10%. The anthracite market will correspondingly shrink rapidly, gradually shifting the supply of anthracite from its previous supply to a balance between supply and demand and even oversupply. The price cannot continue to rise. Thirdly, with the expansion of the low-grade coal middle- and low-temperature carbonization scale, related companies and research institutes are stepping up the injection of coke blast furnace, the replacement of blue coal with anthracite, the production of coke breeze or the direct powder coal gasification, and coke powder production. Coal replaces high-temperature metallurgical coke and other application tests, and has achieved initial success. Once it is promoted and applied in related industries, not only will the demand for anthracite coal be substantially reduced, but also the consumption of coking coal will be reduced, the pattern of coking coal supply exceeding demand will be changed, and the price of coking coal will be depressed. "Once the price of anthracite and coking coal, which are the leading varieties of price increase in recent years, has fallen, the price of coal will accelerate downward and enter a downward channel. The adjustment period will be at least 2-3 years. 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