Analysis and Forecast of the Development Trend of China's Industrial Robot Industry

The current development background of China's industrial robots is very similar to that of Japan: labor costs have risen sharply, industrial structure has been upgraded, and national special policies have been supported.
It is expected that China will surpass Japan to become the world's largest industrial robot market next year. By the end of 2012, China’s industrial robots had been held at 101,765 units, with an annual increase of 20,902 units, second only to Japan, ranking second in the world. Since China has the largest labor market in the world and the space for robot replacement is huge, China will surpass Japan in 2014 and become the market with the largest demand for industrial robots.


Figure 1: China's industrial robot ownership (1999-2012)

In recent years, China's industrial robot industry is mainly driven by the development of the automotive industry. In the future, it will be mainly driven by two-wheel drive of “automobile + electronics”. Since 2000, with the continuous opening of new lines in China's auto industry, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the electronics industry has continued to be high, and the number of industrial robots in China has been rapidly increased. In addition, domestic labor costs continue to rise, and industrial robots have formed a trend of replacing labor in many fields. Some large domestic manufacturing companies. For example, BYD and Foxconn have applied industrial robots to the production workshops and put them on a large scale. At the same time, we have seen that the development speed of China's industrial robot industry in the past two years is significantly faster than that of the downstream automobile industry. There are two main reasons: First, because the downstream investment in the automotive industry is very advanced, the corresponding industrial robot systems will be deployed. Second, due to the replacement and automation upgrade of some old production lines in the automotive industry (mainly the auto parts industry), the demand for industrial robots. In the future, as the automation of the electronics industry increases, the demand for industrial robots will increase significantly.
The application of industrial robots in other industries in China will also gradually develop. From the perspective of the application of domestic robots, the automotive and electronics industries are still the main application areas. With the advancement of technology, the application of industrial robots in the fields of military, fine surgery and dangerous operations will gradually develop, and in these fields, industrial robots have an irreplaceable role. From the perspective of robot types, welding robots occupy the largest market share, with sales of about 11,000 units in 2012. In addition, the application of robots such as handling and assembly is also increasing year by year.



Figure 3: Annual sales of various industrial robots in China (2009-2012)

In contrast to the early development of the Japanese industrial robot industry, we found that China's current situation is very similar to that of Japan in the 1980s, regardless of industry size, social background or policy support.
In the past five years, China's robot market has grown much faster than the world average in the same period. According to IFR statistics, as of the end of 2012, China's industrial robots were 101,765 units, accounting for about 8% of the global robot inventory. It added 20,902 units a year, second only to Japan, ranking second in the world. China's robot market is still the fastest growing market in the world. In the past five years, the domestic robot sales volume growth rate reached 25%, while the world robot market sales growth rate was only 9%.
The development of the robot industry in China in the past decade is similar to that in Japan in the 1970s and 1980s In 2000, the application of industrial robots in China was still in its infancy, with a total of 550 units, and an annual increase of 380 units. With the promotion of robot research and application, the number of new additions in 2005 reached 4,461 units. The growth rate is as high as 63.6%, which is very similar to the rapid growth of robots in Japan between 1970 and 1975. In 2009, affected by the global financial crisis, domestic manufacturing industry was in a downturn, and the number of industrial robots increased slightly. However, since the beginning of 2010, the application of industrial robots has resumed growth, with an annual increase of 14,978 units.


Figure 4: China's current development of industrial robots compared with Japan's 70s and 80s

In the future, China will become the world's largest producer and consumer of industrial robots. In 1999, the production and sales scale of industrial robots in China was only 500 sets. In 2008, it exceeded 7,000 units. In 2009, it was affected by the financial crisis. It has recovered strongly in 2011, with annual sales reaching 22,500 units, second only to Japan and South Korea. China's industrial robot market demand began to blow out. At present, China is the fastest growing region in the world in the new year. In 2011, it reached 51%. It is expected that by 2014 China will become the world's largest installed capacity in the world, which means that China will surpass Japan to become the world's most demanding industry. Robot market. According to the trend of China's new annual increase, we forecast that the annual increase in 2015 will reach 35,000 units, an increase of nearly 60% compared with 2011, and in 2020 it will reach the level of 63,000 units. This also means that China's robot industry is in the early stage of explosive growth, and China will become the world's largest consumer of robots in the near future.

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